Is India approaching its peak of Covid-19 cases?

NEW DELHI: With India's Covid-19 recovery rate going past 74% on Friday, is the country now approaching its peak? A record 62,282 patients have recovered and were discharged in the last 24 hours, taking the total recoveries to 21.5 lakh, the Union health ministry said.
According to a State Bank of India analysis, based on the rising recovery rate, India may be close to hitting its peak. The SBI report estimates that India will reach its peak of cases when it hits 75% recovery rate, based on trends of other countries. Brazil reached its peak when its recovery rate was 69.9%, while Malaysia reached its peak when it hit a recovery rate of 79.5%. India's recovery rate currently stands at 74.30%, which is bolstered by several states reporting recovery rate of more than 50%.


However, the data doesn't necessarily show a causal relationship become recovery rate and peak. Hitting a peak doesn't mean the pandemic has reached its peak - countries will likely see cases and deaths increase, albeit a slower pace, and may even hit new peaks if proper precautions are not kept in place.
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India's recovery rate has been improving steadily over the last couple of months. From 52.8% on June 17, the recovery rate improved to 63.24% on July 16 and further to 74.30% as on date. Delhi presently has the highest recovery rate of 90.10%, followed by Tamil Nadu at 83.50%, Gujarat 79.40%, Telangana 77.40%, Rajasthan 76.80%, West Bengal 76.50, Bihar 76.30% and Madhya Pradesh 75.80%.
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There are 6,92,028 active cases of coronavirus infection which is the "actual caseload" of the country and comprise 23.82% of the total cases presently. All are under active medical supervision, the ministry said.
A sharpened focus on improved and effective clinical treatment in hospitals, supervised home isolation, use of non-invasive oxygen support, improved services of ambulances for ferrying patients, upgradation of clinical skills of doctors treating Covid-19 patients by active technical guidance through tele-consultation sessions of AIIMS, New Delhi etc., have together led to point-to-point and efficient patient management, the ministry said.
Inputs: PTI, SBI Ecowrap