GCSE results come in Wales after week of turmoil

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Thousands of pupils in Wales will be getting GCSE results later - but this year based on how their teachers thought they would do.

It follows the uproar after last week's A-levels with 42% of moderated grades lower than teacher assessments.

It escalated into a major political row and a U-turn by the Welsh Government, amid similar moves elsewhere in the UK.

Overall GCSE results will be significantly higher, now that some grades will not have been lowered.

Exams were cancelled in the summer because of coronavirus but it has led to chaotic last minute changes to results after claims of unfairness to pupils.

Education Minister Kirsty Williams has apologised to young people, for the turmoil of this year's results process.

As usual, pupils getting their grades will find out results through their school but, due to the pandemic, some will receive an email rather than visiting the school in person.

As for the bigger picture, for this year at least it will be impossible to compare this set of results to 2019, which saw nearly two thirds of pupils getting good GCSE grades.

It will also be difficult to glean meaningful data about how pupils are performing in different subjects - or compared with other parts of the UK.

'It was a weird feeling'

Ioan, 16, a pupil at Ysgol Y Moelwyn in Blaenau Ffestiniog, Gwynedd said: "After what's gone on with A-levels, hearing that they've changed it for GCSEs, it's boosted morale for everyone.

"We had our reports a few weeks before lockdown and that's given us rough estimates of where we'll stand. I know what's on my report card, I was told As and double As and A*s in science.

"It was a weird feeling knowing I'd be in the first year not to have to sit GCSEs, all the preparation we've done in class, but not to have to put in that studying [for exams].

"One side of me says we've not had stress - but the other side says it's a cheap way, we can't actually say we did it, even though I know I've put in 100% and done the work."

Imogen, from Llanfair Caereinion in Powys, is expecting 10 results but is disappointed that she won't find out what her moderated grades might have been.

She also questions what future employers might make of the 2020 grades.

"I'm not nervous, excited or worried - it's spoilt the day really, when lots of people could now be getting similar results, you ask yourself why have I bothered working for the last couple of years?" she said.

What are the teacher assessment grades?

This summer's results were due to be calculated by "standardising" grades submitted by teachers based on their view of how pupils would have done had exams not been cancelled.

We know already the proportion of top grades awarded under teacher assessments is more than last year.

Qualifications Wales set out that 24.5% would have a grade A* or A, compared to final results of 20% in 2019. And 73.4% would have an A* to C grade, compared to 64.4% in 2019.

Dr Rhian Barrance, education lecturer at Cardiff University, said teacher assessments in general should be seen as reliable indicator of pupil performance.

"Having said that, there is some evidence that in some cases teacher judgement might be biased against certain groups of students - those from disadvantaged and certain ethnic minority backgrounds - so it's really important when the data comes out it's monitored so that doesn't happen and students have a right to redress, to directly appeal to the exam board not just through their schools."

What will it mean for pupils now?

• Pupils cannot get a grade which is any lower than their teacher has assessed
• But if the grade which has been "standardised" by the exam board is actually higher than the teacher's assessed grade, then pupils will not lose out and will get this higher grade
• Before the row, it was announced the appeals process would be widened but the details are now being reviewed in view of the latest announcement, with more information expected soon

How has this all happened?

After it emerged a quarter of students received lower Highers results than estimated, the Scottish government stepped in - raising alarm bells in other parts of the UK.

A last ditch move by the Welsh Government to provide a safety net that A-level grades would not be lower than AS failed to avoid the fallout once schools and pupils saw the grades.

There was mounting pressure as pupils, teachers and politicians said the process had generated unfair results in Wales.

Although the education minister initially defended the system as fair and "very robust", it was announced on Monday that pupils would be awarded grades assessed by teachers after all.

Nevertheless, the chief executive of the WJEC exam board Ian Morgan has warned that "grade inflation" could have an impact on future groups of students.

"We've got to maintain a qualification standard that says, if you've got a GCSE in English language, your GCSE in English language for this year is the same level as your GCSE in English language for next year", he told the Welsh Parliament's children, young people and education committee.

"I think we've got collective challenges in that", he added.

Qualifications Wales said next year's exams were being looked at, warning that there was "a problem, potentially".

Ms Williams meanwhile has promised an independent review to look at what went wrong.

In an interview with BBC Wales, she said her main focus was making changes to ensure a "successful results day" on Thursday for GCSE students, and address A-level grades before the end of the week.

She said the original system had been robust "there or thereabouts".