Govt projects 50k new cases in next one month in Nagpur district

Nagpur: Considering the spread of the pandemic, the state government has reportedly projected 50,000 new Covid-19 cases in the district in next one month. However, to detect all the infected persons as per the projections, the administration will have to increase testing in a big way over the next one month.
BJP MLA from Hingna Sameer Meghe released an audio clip on social media on Tuesday. In the clip, Meghe said, “Leader of opposition Devendra Fadnavis took review of pandemic with collector and divisional commissioner, who said projection is of 40,000-50,000 cases in the district in next one month.”
Talking to TOI, Meghe said, “The projection seems to consider the way cases have increased in the district. The officials told us 50,000 is projected number of new cases in the district one month from now. They say the district is likely to witness peak of Covid-19 in next 8-10 days, with the peak likely to remain for one or one-and-a-half months.”
Meghe said he revealed the projected number of cases to spread awareness among people. “Only a few people are following guidelines of Covid distancing, wearing mask etc. Through audio and video clips, I have appealed on social media to people to stay at home and step outside only for essential service,” he said.
Fadnavis held the review meeting at collector office and also Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC) on Monday. BJP legislators were present. Collector Ravindra Thakre has reportedly informed all about the projection of cases.
After the meeting, Fadnavis had given a statement to mediapersons that next one month will be very critical for the district.
One of the legislators present in the meeting said the government projected 44,000 cumulative cases by end of August. As on Tuesday, the number of cases in the district was 17,872.
MLC Parinay Fuke said, “It depends upon number of tests. If 10% of total tested samples are testing positive, we need to do 5,00,000 tests in next one month. Therefore, Fadnavis directed officials to increase testing so that cases are detected early and given treatment in time to prevent deaths as well as containing spread of Covid-19. But the state government and NMC have miserably failed to increase the testing. At present, only 3,000 tests are being done in a day in the city, which should be above 5,000 and increase gradually.”
Thakre did not respond to TOI’s calls and messages.
If the projections come true, a major problem for the district will be availability of beds for treatment of symptomatic patients. TOI had highlighted symptomatic patients were finding it difficult to get admission in government and private hospitals even now. At present, the number of active cases is around 9,000. It will increase manifold if district registers 50,000 cases in one month.
Meghe and Fuke said, “Fadnavis has given a good suggestion to officials to increase number of Covid Care Centres (CCCs) for patients with moderate symptoms. Some private hospitals should be kept for non-Covid patients and these hospitals should be tied-up with CCCs for monitoring and treatment of patients. Much depends upon the people and every situation can be controlled if all follow the guidelines.”
Divisional commissioner Sanjeev Kumar said, “The administration is prepared for every situation. There are less chances of peak in all districts of Vidarbha at one time. In Nagpur district, we have started Covid-19 services at Lata Mangeshkar Hospital and Shalinitai Meghe Hospital. We also plan to treat patients at Wardha, where 1,000 beds are available. We have capacity of 1,200 in GMCH and IGGMCH, which will get sufficient staff. NMC has also developed hospitals. Some more private hospitals will also begin service for Covid-19.”
In April, the government had projected peak and 18,902 cases in 10 days between May 15 and 31 to prepare the health infrastructure. But experts in epidemiology said it was prevented with full lockdown in April and May.