New Delhi: Delhi’s effective reproduction number ‘R’ for Covid-19 — a key parameter to measure the rate of an infection — has risen to 1.09 after remaining under 1 for over a month.
The R value for Chennai also rose from 0.86 around 4 August to 1.11 this week.
The country’s overall R value, meanwhile, has been steady at 1.05 this week, according calculations made by Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai.
An epidemic is considered to be under control when the R value remains below 1 consistently.
Both R and R0 (basic reproduction number) are an estimate of the number of people a patient can infect.
While R0 is calculated at the beginning of an epidemic, when the entire population is assumed to be susceptible to a disease, R changes with time and takes into account the fact that some individuals are protected from the illness — either because they have developed immunity or due to social distancing measures.
For India, the R0 was calculated to be about 1.83 in April.
The R0 of a disease depends on three factors — the probability of infection when a susceptible person comes in contact with an infected individual, average rate of contact between susceptible and infected individuals, and the duration during which an individual spreads an infection.
States showing downward trend
Sinha also calculated the R value for states with the highest number of active Covid-19 cases. For Tamil Nadu, the R value that had gone down to 0.92 last week has risen to 1.03 this week.
Most other states have shown a downward trend. Last week, Andhra Pradesh’s R value was at 1.14, a reduction from 1.48 around 4 August when it had the highest R among 12 worst-affected states. It has decreased further to 0.90 this week.
Bihar’s R value was 1.22 last week and has now reduced to 1.16. Uttar Pradesh and Telangana too have witnessed a decrease in their R values.
While Uttar Pradesh’s R value was at 1.27 around 12 August, it has decreased to 1.06 this week.
Telangana’s R value was estimated to be around 0.9 around 22 July. It had increased to 1.18 a week later, but has since been steadily reducing. The value is now at 1.06.
West Bengal’s R value has also been reducing over the last two weeks. It has been 1.06 this week, from last week’s 1.14. Kolkata’s R value has also dipped to 0.92 from 1.06 around 3 August.
Maharashtra’s R value reduced to 1.10 this week, from last week’s 1.12. Mumbai, meanwhile, has a slightly increased R, from 0.81 on 3 August to 0.86 this week.
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