India\'s Covid-19 fatality rate has a different story to tell

India's total Covid-19 deaths crossed 50,000 on Sunday, the fourth highest tally in the world. However, the country’s fatality rate is less than 2%, which is on the lower side compared to the rest of the world. Some recent reports have said India is undercounting deaths and that actual deaths are higher. A look at cross-country fatality rates and India’s count:

1. INDIA HAS A LOW FATALITY RATE

KEY REASONS WHY COVID-19 FATALITIES COULD BE MISSED

- Low testing: A person may die of Covid-19 but is not counted because of s/he wasn’t tested
- Lack of robust public health surveillance system; medically certifi ed deaths just 22%
- Most deaths occur at home and some of them could be Covid positive
- Wrong diagnoses, especially if patients are suffering from other ailments

2. COULD INDIA BE MISSING MANY COVID-19 DEATHS?

Even if deaths are missed for above mentioned reasons, it is not likely to be large because

- India’s counts not out of sync with rest of South Asia, which is demographically similar

If rest of South Asia is reporting right, India’s numbers should not be massively underestimated

- Anecdotal evidence does not suggest very high fatalities
- Most countries with high deaths had visible evidence

3. REASONS WHY INDIA’S AND SOUTH ASIA’S FATALITY RATE MAY BE LOW

- Young population; Covid fatalities more in higher age groups
- Higher immunity as exposed to elements more than developed countries
- Virus may have weakened with time; countries that caught early had high fatality

4. SOUTH ASIA’S RECOVERY RATE IS VERY HIGH