Coronavirus vaccine: What could be the worst case scenario if we don't get a vaccine?

COVID-19 cases are seeing alarming daily spurts in cities across the world. There have been reports of a possible second, and even third wave of coronavirus outbreak in some parts. While our wait for a vaccine might be longer than we actually thought of, there exist possibilities that a vaccine may not be our best shot of preventive defence against the virus. A recent finding from the UK also pointed out that despite best efforts, 1 in 6 people could possibly refuse vaccination, which could negate the purpose of mass deployment.

So, what do we do if a vaccine fails to inoculate the masses? Or worse, what will we do if we do not actually get a good vaccine to fight the pandemic?

Currently, there are over 110+ vaccine groups in contention for development of a COVID-19 vaccine. While many of them are in early phases of testing (including Indian vaccines), only 4 have reached critical phase III of testing. Even so, it's not possible that the vaccines, which have been developed in such a fast manner may prove to the holy grail. There can be many loopholes and scenarios which can mark a vaccine unsafe for use. Even with a vaccine deployed, there exists a chance that mass inoculation may just prevent certain symptoms and severity or just provide limited protection. There is no surety that a vaccine may work forever in eradicating the disease. So, pinning our hopes on a vaccine alone won't be the safest bet. What do we do, then?

Vaccines might look simpler in principle but are more complex in practice and usage. In all likelihood, a coronavirus vaccine will not be 100% effective.

While the past month has witnessed promising advancements from the world of ambitious vaccine makers, the timeline is trickier to decipher. Scientists have also said that even in our long wait for a COVID vaccine, we must not concentrate on the 'when' part of it, and instead focus on finding an effective and workable vaccine.

Whether or not a vaccine could work may depend on the current scenario.

Current timeline dictates that different cities peak at different times. While COVID-19 might not really go away, it can be possible that the outbreaks will be more localized and turn into endemics in the future. Hence, the priority should be made to avoid reinfections.

Before a vaccine becomes reality, the world over must adopt measures which work towards preventing reinfections. Identifying the ones exposed, contact tracing, maintaining safe distancing and enforcing strict quarantines for those who have been exposed, along with repeated serosurveys could help confine the spread of the infection. Scientists have said that countries with the lowest coronavirus rates practised this and successful quarantine measures have been helpful in limiting COVID spread to near zero in some places.

Strict level of vigilance, isolation, infection control and detection could be the keys to defeating COVID-19 in the present timeline as well as the future.

Introduction of anti-viral medications, the ones which could be used to treat and lower complications associated with severe forms of COVID-19 could also be a more effective measure than vaccination, some experts suggest. They are easier to make and would be far more effective. Treatment medications could also help those at risk for whom vaccination won't work such as the elderlies, or those who aren't medically allowed to use a vaccine.

Even though global alliances and health bodies are working towards equitable vaccine distribution, having a vaccine which would work for all masses could also deter with the fact that not all countries have proper healthcare access. Hence, ensuring hindrances like these should ideally be the first priority check before secondary measures like vaccine deployment are trusted on.