Could a decade of stability in dealership count be ending?

The number of new vehicles sold on average at U.S. dealerships will plunge in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic pushes down total industry sales. But it's too early to know whether that will translate to more dealerships shutting for good, according to Urban Science, a consulting firm that tracks the franchised dealership count in the U.S.

That drop in dealership throughput for 2020, to a forecasted 734 new vehicles per store from 940 in 2019, comes more than a decade after the last big plunge during the Great Recession. After vehicle sales dropped in the 2008-2009 period, the U.S. dealership count also tumbled, from 20,000-plus franchised stores to 17,659 in 2010.

"It's been pretty stable year to year since 2010," said Mitch Phillips, Urban Science's global data director. He noted the total number of dealerships in the U.S. has, in fact, steadily grown since then.

Urban Science last week released its midyear franchised dealership review showing that U.S. store count is down by 34 outlets to 18,161 as of July 1. The total franchise count slid by 154 to 32,031.

Phillips said the slight drop so far in 2020 is not significant and that it's too early to tell whether it's connected to the coronavirus crisis. "Nobody knows exactly for sure until this over, until we can examine it," he said.

In the case of the Great Recession, the country's last major economic crisis, lower throughput was a leading indicator of the downturn in the dealership count to come. But each crisis stands alone.

With this year's pandemic, U.S. new-vehicle sales skidded 33 percent to 2.97 million in the second quarter as Americans hunkered down and many showrooms

were shuttered by state orders. For the first six months, U.S. new-vehicle deliveries dropped 23 percent to 6.48 million.

But nearly 90 percent of U.S. dealerships were helped through the period by the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program. And after severe declines in business in March and April, U.S. dealerships have reported a robust rebound in sales and profit beginning in May.

Urban Science's 2020 throughput estimate of 734 new vehicles sold per franchised dealership in the U.S. — based on a forecast of up to 13.5 million new light vehicles being sold this year — would mark the lowest level for that marker since it came in at 719 in 2011.

Throughput during the Great Recession bottomed out at 564 new vehicles per store in 2009, the firm said. It rose to a peak of 966 in 2015 and has since been in the mid-900 range.

Where the measurement ends up for 2020 — and whether the severity of the drop pushes a significant number of dealerships to close — will be determined over the next five months.