The monsoon will continue to be active over the next two weeks delivering normal to above normal rainfall for most parts of the country except the North-Eastern States, backed up, as it will be, by a fourth low-pressure area of the month likely forming over the North-West Bay of Bengal, says an extended outlook for the period by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The impending low-pressure area could pop up over the Bay waters in another week’s time (around August 19), with the IMD predicting above normal precipitation over Central India, West India (Gujarat), northern parts of Peninsular India and North-West India. The distribution of rainfall across time and space too has been reasonably good so far, the update said.
Procession of low’s from Bay
A procession of low-pressure areas marching in from the Bay have generated enough rain to cover the lingering deficit over Central India, and the expected rain from a prevailing and the low brewing next is expected to make good the shortage in parts of North-West India, especially the Union Territories of Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir as well as the State of Himachal Pradesh.
As for Friday morning, the prevailing low over North Coastal Odisha is expected to move slowly to West-North-West and become better organised during the next 2-3 days, the IMD said. This would keep the monsoon trough, the narrow belt of lower pressure which provides a safe harbour for the low, to move around over land, active for the next 3-4 days.
This would ensure fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls over major parts of North-West India (Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh) during the next two days and decrease thereafter since the low would have drained out its moisture and weakened by then.
Rain forecast
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are expected over Gujarat State, Konkan, Goa, the Ghat areas of central Maharashtra, East Rajasthan and parts of Central India in the next 4-5 days. This is basically the remnant circulation which would be headed towards West India, and would still be capable of drawing moisture from the Arabian Sea.
Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Gujarat and East Rajasthan during the next 2-3 days and over the Ghat areas of central Maharashtra during till Saturday. To the East, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls is forecast over Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in the next 2-3 days due to the proximity to the low.