“The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year,” Lichtman told CNN.A US history professor, who has accurately predicted every single presidential election result for almost 40 years, has said former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat President Donald Trump in the upcoming polls.
American University Professor Allan Lichtman, who has been described by The New York Times as the ‘Nostradamus of presidential elections’, used his tried and tested ’13 keys to the White House’ analytical model to predict the results of this year’s election. The unique model has served him well since 1984, when he first correctly predicted former US President Ronald Raegan’s return to office.
“The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year,” Lichtman told CNN. During the last presidential election in 2016, the history professor was one of the few pollsters who rightly predicted Trump’s victory. Many dismissed his findings months before the election.
“The secret is keeping your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. And don’t pay any attention to the polls, the pundits, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. And that’s what the keys gauge. The big picture,” he explained in an interview with CNN earlier this week.
When asked whether his ’13 Keys’ could account for the unprecedented devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, Lichtman said, “Look, retrospectively and prospectively, the keys go all the way back to 1860. They are what we call a robust system. So, I don’t fiddle with them. They’ve lasted through enormous changes in our politics, in our economy, in our democracy. Don’t fiddle with the keys.”
Lichtman collaborated with a Russian scientist who specialised in predicting earthquakes to develop his 13 Keys model. The model comprises statements about various factors, like the economy, incumbency, social unrest, as well as the appeal of the candidate. The statements are answered with either ‘true’ or ‘false’. If six or more Keys are marked ‘false’, then it is likely that the candidate will lose the election.