HDFC Securities recommended reduce rating on Emami with a target price of Rs 232 in its research report dated August 08, 2020.
HDFC Securities' research report on Emami
Emami posted a weak 1QFY21 as revenue/EBITDA declined by 26/8% YoY (HSIE -19/-9%). The domestic revenue decline of 26% YoY (volume decline of 28%) was due to the Navratna range, Male Grooming and Kesh King declining by 41/70/33% YoY. However, Boroplus, Healthcare, and Pain management clocked a strong growth of 28/23/15% YoY. The company saw sequential improvement in revenue growth (+8% YoY in June and double-digit growth in July), led by healthcare and pain management. The pick-up is driven by (1) healthy growth in rural markets, (2) new launches (5% contribution), and (3) channel filling. At the same time, sharp cost control (A&P down by 54% YoY) led to 487bps YoY expansion in EBITDA margin. Despite strong growth in June/July, we expect core categories to improve gradually.
Outlook
However, we increase our EPS estimate by 5/3/3% for FY21/FY22/FY23 on account of the strong traction in healthcare and pain management along with benign raw material prices. We value Emami at 18x P/E on Jun-22E EPS and derive a target price of Rs 232. Maintain REDUCE.
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