Covid-19: Recoveries in Karnataka soared 88% in August

BENGALURU: The number of discharges in Karnataka over the past 10 days has increased 88% compared to those cured as on July 31, while the number of new Covid-19 cases in the same period showed a 44% spike. However, in absolute terms, the state added about 54,000 cases during the period, compared to around 44,000 recoveries.
Analysis of data shows an obvious link: The state, which saw an alarming surge in new cases in July, is now seeing a more sustained daily growth, while the number of recoveries has surged. Compared to 40% as of July 31, the overall recovery rate in the state as on August 9 stands at 53%.

There are two reasons for this: First, the cycle of recoveries has kicked in and data shows that many people who had contracted the infection in late June and early July are now being discharged.
Second, as Dr Giridhara Babu, member, ICMR task force on research and surveillance, points out, the state has now tweaked its discharge policy — people in hospital can be sent home if they show no symptoms for three consecutive days after being admitted. Earlier, a patient had to spend between 10 and 14 days in hospital.
“Although expected, this is a positive sign,” Babu said. “As recoveries increase, we will soon reach a stage where the growth rate of recoveries too will plateau till active cases come down. Also, the recovery rate reflects whether the curve flattens and bends. The focus must continue to be on doing more and more tests and detection of cases.”
Data analysis of cases and discharges from July 1 — when cases began surging in Karnataka — shows that in the first two 10-day periods (July 1-10 and July 11- 20), the growth rate of fresh cases was more than recoveries. That has now been reversed.
“All other variables notwithstanding, the pace of recoveries had dipped significantly from mid-June and this continued in July,” an expert on the government task force said. “If you look at discharges in the last week of July and first week of August, you will also see a lot of patients who had tested positive in June leaving hospital. Now that the pace of recovery has increased, we are likely to see this trend continue.”
Compared to a 115% jump in active cases in the first 10 days of July, the 10 days between July 31 and August 9 saw only a 12% surge in this category, which further accentuated the surge in discharges.