June Industrial Output Shrinks By 16.6% As Coronavirus Hits Business Activity

Last month, the government had suspended the release of headline industrial output numbers for May, citing inadequacy of data.

June Industrial Output Shrinks By 16.6% As Coronavirus Hits Business Activity

Analysts had expected industrial output to be worse

Industrial output fell 16.6 per cent year-on-year in June, shrinking for the fourth month in a row, though the monthly measure indicated some recovery in the coronavirus-hit sector. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a contraction of 20.0 per cent in June, compared to a revised 33.9 per cent annual contraction in May, the data showed

Industrial activity has been hit hard in Asia's third-largest economy after the government imposed lockdown restrictions in late March

"With the lifting of restrictions in the subsequent periods, industrial activity is resuming," the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said in a statement on Tuesday

Private economists, however, said the economy was staring at the worst economic slowdown since independence from British colonial rule in 1947.The number of people infected with the coronavirus in India has crossed 2.2 million, with 45,257 deaths, and epidemiologists say the peak could be months away.

The weekend lockdown in many states and restrictions on public transport have hit production in factories and domestic and overseas sales of garments, vehicles and consumer durables. Manufacturing, which contributes nearly 17 per cent to the economy, contracted 40.7 per cent in the three months to end-June, indicating a sharp fall in economic activity

Passenger vehicle production in July fell 29.4 per cent from a year earlier, separate data released by an industry body on Tuesday showed. Economists have predicted the economy could contract as much as 20 per cent in the April-June quarter

GDP data for the June quarter is due to be released at the end of the month. The government had forecast 6 per cent economic growth in the current fiscal year beginning April, before the coronavirus hit, and has since maintained that there are signs of recovery as reflected by tax collection numbers.

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