The second low-pressure area that originated over the North-West Bay of Bengal has crossed coast and was located this (Monday) over North-East Madhya Pradesh, hinting at a progressively north-north-westward movement towards New Delhi and neighbourhood, likely sparing Kerala and Coastal Karnataka.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places in Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka until tomorrow (Tuesday) and reduce thereafter.
Instead, a belt of heavy to very heavy rainfall would head towards the hills of North-West India (Western Himalayas) and the adjoining plains for three days until Wednesday.
Rains to return to North-West
Moderate to severe thunderstorm accompanied with lightning has been forecast over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, central parts of Rajasthan, Bihar, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during this period. The facilitating monsoon trough lay extended from Firozepur (the western end, slightly north of its normal position) before linking Delhi, the low over North-East Madhya Pradesh, Ambikapur and Bhubaneshwar (the eastern end, south of its normal position).
A second trough (not very usual) ran down from South-East Rajasthan to the low over North-East Madhya Pradesh. The presence of these two troughs will mean enhanced rainfall over the hills and plains of North-West as well as East India. In the North-West, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, New Delhi and Himachal Pradesh are running varying rain deficits, with a few nursing it right from the start of the monsoon.
Weather outlook for Monday
In the South, the off-shore trough, spine of the monsoon for the region, lay truncated from North Karnataka coast to South Kerala. Given this background of atmospheric features, the IMD has come out with the following outlook for the rest of today (Monday):
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, North Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and East Madhya Pradesh; Odisha; Coastal and South interior Karnataka and Kerala.
Heavy rain is predicted over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, and West Madhya Pradesh; Vidarbha, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-Eastern States; Konkan and Goa; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana; and North Interior Karnataka.
High winds forecast
Strong winds (50-60 km/hr) may prevail along and off the Karnataka-Kerala coasts and Lakshadweep area. Strong winds (40-50 km/hr) over North-West and North-East Arabian Sea while squally weather( wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr) is likely over Central and North-West Bay of Bengal and along Andhra Pradesh, Odisha coasts. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into these areas.
An extended outlook for August 15-17 said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thundershowers may break out over East and North-East India; and parts of Central and North-West India. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls may lash eastern parts of Central India, the North-Eastern States, along the northern parts of the West Coast, Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh. Isolated to scattered rainfall/thundershowers are likely over the rest of the country.