Hanoi: For almost six months, Vietnamese officials every day announced a fairly astonishing statistic for a nation of 96 million: no Covid-19 deaths. But that changed on July 31, with 10 deaths being reported since.

After no reports of community transmission cases since April 16, an outbreak in the coastal city of Danang turned deadly in late July. The virus swept through three hospitals and infected older people with serious health issues, leading health officials to warn of more deaths.

“The coronavirus infection was their last straw,” said Nguyen Gia Binh, who leads the health ministry’s team overseeing Covid-19 treatment, in a government post.

Vietnam’s virus resurgence underscores the difficulties governments face not only in battling waves of the stealthy pathogen but doing so while trying to preserve economic growth. After officials lifted strict social-distancing lockdowns last spring, people returned to activities such as crowding onto Danang’s beaches, prompting Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc to scold the country for letting its guard down.

It’s unclear where the latest outbreak originated, though it quickly spread to 12 provinces and cities and infected 333 people. The virus may have lurked in Vietnam undetected, spread through a quarantine glitch or an illegal migrant, or jumped to a human from an animal, said Rogier van Doorn, a clinical microbiologist and director of the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Hanoi.

Vietnam’s tough approach to containing the virus had protected it from the fate of neighboring countries, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, whose health care systems became overwhelmed as fatalities rapidly rose.

Last month, officials in the Philippines warned hospitals were being swamped by patients as virus cases soared. Hospital beds were close to 50% capacity, landing in the Health Department’s “warning zone.” Four major hospitals in the Philippine capital region turned away coronavirus patients after reaching capacity in their Covid-19 wards.

Overcrowded Hospitals

Yet Vietnam’s chronically overcrowded hospitals are at risk if it fails to contain this outbreak, with most of the cases tied to medical facilities in Danang. Officials in Hanoi are alarmed at the inability of medical units to conduct thorough contact tracing of as many as 94,000 residents who have returned to the nation’s capital from hard-hit Danang.

“The government is aware that the health care system is at risk,” said Le Dang Doanh, a Hanoi-based economist and former government adviser. “In Danang, doctors and hospital staff have been infected. If medical staff are infected, the pandemic could paralyze the medical system.”

Vietnam, whose tally of 789 confirmed virus patients as of the morning of Aug. 8 is dramatically lower than in most countries with similar populations, is grappling with the deadly nature of the virus for the first time. Previously, the government was able to catch infected individuals and the health care system wasn’t overwhelmed, enabling a high level of care, van Doorn said.

Now, dozens more are at greater risk of contracting the infection and dying because of existing health problems and advanced age, the government warns. This is the scenario Vietnam sought to avoid with drastic policies to contain the virus at the pandemic’s start. In response to the Danang outbreak, Vietnamese authorities placed 23,356 people in quarantine centers, isolated 6,717 people in hospitals and ordered 140,384 to quarantine at home, according to the health ministry.

Authorities also issued a stay-at-home order for Danang and three other regions and called for the testing of the coastal city’s 1.1 million residents while Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City closed bars and suspended large gatherings. The country’s leaders so far have said they plan to avoid nationwide lockdowns, instead applying them to hot spots. The prime minster Friday said aggressive action is needed in the next two weeks as the country faces a high risk of community infection.

Investors appear confident in the government’s ability to handle its latest Covid crisis. The nation’s benchmark equity gauge has jumped 5.4% in five days after losing more than 8% in the previous two weeks as the flare-up initially unnerved the market.

“The government wants to control the pandemic but also avoid an economic backlash,” economist Doanh said. “The pandemic is a test for the state. During the first wave, Vietnam was quite successful. Now, it’s getting quite complicated.” – Bloomberg

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