ICICI Direct As policy rates remained unchanged, focus will shift to global currencies once again. A move above 94 levels for dollar index may be the first sign of a reversal.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
Spot Currency
Rupee spot prices ended almost flat for another session and weakened marginally after opening lower. RBI policy did not make any major impact on the rupee as policy rates remained unchanged. Despite positive equities, the rupee was unable to move below 75 levels • The dollar index is alternating between gains and losses in the second half of the week, near the key 93.00 mark and against the backdrop of solid sentiment in the risk-associated universe. However, any reversal may be considered only above 94 levels for the dollar index.
Currency futures on NSE
As policy rates remained unchanged, focus will shift to global currencies once again. A move above 94 levels for dollar index may be the first sign of a reversal. Till then, we expect prevailing range of 74.50-75.50 for US$INR to continue • The dollar-rupee contract on the NSE was at 75.06 in the last session. The open interest in the August series fell 2.5% while it increased almost 6% in the next series.
Intra-day strategy
| US$INR Aug futures contract (NSE) | View: Bearish on US$INR |
| Sell US$ in the range of 75.08-75.12 | Market Lot: US$1000 |
| Target: 74.80/ 74.60 | Stop Loss: 75.22 |
| Support | Resistance |
| Support: 74.80/74.60 | Resistance: 75.22/75.38 |
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