Karnataka surpasses its own caseload prediction

BENGALURU: In a measure of just how uncontrolled Karnataka’s fight against the pandemic has been, the state has surpassed its own prediction of positive cases by over 50,000, that too 10 days ahead of time. From laxity in testing, lack of testing kits and surge in number of cases in Bengaluru, the state’s fight against the pandemic has fallen woefully short.
On June 20, TOI had reported that prediction models by the state health department and assessments by the state Covid-19 War Room had projected 1 lakh positive cases by August 15. The assessment was based on the doubling rate.
The War Room then quickly downgraded the prediction, ostensibly after receiving flak for “spreading fear and creating panic”. It said there would only be 10,000 positive cases by August 15. However, as on Wednesday, 10 days ahead of the set date of August 15, Karnataka’s total cases went past the 1.5 lakh mark. And if the current doubling rates continue, then the state will have 1 lakh active cases – just under 74,000 on Wednesday – by August 15.
As of Tuesday, War Room officials said, the state’s doubling rate is 15 days, the sixth fastest among states in the country and among the three top states with a high doubling rate, the others being Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. The doubling rate for Bengaluru, which accounts for about 43% of total cases, is pegged at 17 days.
The bigger concern though is that Karnataka is seeing a compounded daily growth rate of 4.2%, with cases touching an average 5,500 daily. This means that in the next 10 days, 55,000 fresh cases would be added to the tally, taking the total number of cases to around 2 lakh. The good news is that with the recovery rate at 47.5%, the total number of discharges will hover around 1 lakh.
Further, the number of senior citizens (aged above
60) being infected is an added concern, especially as far as preventing fatalities is concerned. As on Tuesday, the number of infected senior citizens stood at 17,319 (12 % of total cases).
Sources say Karnataka must learn from Delhi, as the national capital reduced infections drastically over the past few weeks. “We must take a leaf or two from the Delhi model. But then political differences create a stumbling block,” an official said.