After it impacts the Carolinas, the storm will deliver some heavy rain to the mid-Atlantic and New England.
Tropical Storm Isaias was spreading torrential rainfall, strong winds and the threat for tornadoes across the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday morning — and forecasters say more flooding rain and tornadoes are possible along the Interstate 95 corridor of the Northeast throughout the day on Tuesday.
Several tornado reports have already been filed this morning across the Delmarva region. Multiple witnesses spotted a tornado in Queenstown, Maryland, which is located across the Chesapeake Bay from Baltimore, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reported. A vehicle was reportedly overturned.
Tornado reports and social media photos emerged from Kent and New Castle counties in Delaware Tuesday morning. Power poles were reportedly snapped just west of Dover, with several large tree branches down over roadways in the area. Emergency Management confirmed possible tornado damage to homes in Townsend and along Route 13 in Smyrna.
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Just a few minutes later, a possible tornado touched down in Cape May County, New Jersey, about 2 miles west of Strathmere, crossing Route 50.
Earlier in the morning, Suffolk, Virginia, located in the southeastern part of the state, west of Norfolk, suffered a direct strike from a possible tornado, which left behind heavy damage, including numerous downed trees and power lines, and widespread roof damage to homes in the downtown area.
Two injuries were reported along with significant structural damage as a possible tornado tracked through eastern portions of Lancaster County, Virginia, early in the morning, according to the SPC.
Isaias, packing winds of 70 mph, was racing across eastern Maryland at a breakneck pace of 35 mph to the north-northeast as of 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday morning. The storm was located 70 miles southwest of Philadelphia.
Up to 7 inches of rain has fallen thus far in part of the mid-Atlantic from the storm. A gust to 94 mph was reported at a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cooperative observer station at York River East, Virginia, and an 85-mph gust was observed at a station at Rappahannock Shoal, Virginia.
Isaias strengthened into a dangerous and damaging Category 1 hurricane prior to making landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, Monday night, and will continue to send copious amounts of moisture northward. The storm will pack enough wind to cause problems hundreds of miles farther north from when the storm was at its peak.
"Along and just northwest of the I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England, heavy windblown rain with embedded severe thunderstorms will be the central theme from Isaias," AccuWeather Northeast weather expert Elliot Abrams warned prior to the storm hitting on Monday.
Strong winds from the storm cut power to hundreds of thousands of customers across eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia as the storm moved inland. A tornado is suspected of killing one person and injuring 20 others at a mobile home park in Windsor, Bertie County, North Carolina, during Monday night.
More tornadoes are expected to touch down through the day near and east of the track of the center of Isaias. The risk of tornadoes and waterspouts includes Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York state and southwestern New England.
The National Weather Service issued a tornado watch from the Delmarva Peninsula to the New York City area and southern portions of Connecticut on Tuesday -- and the SPC posted an enhanced risk of severe weather along the same corridor.
All told, Isaias is predicted to cause between $2 billion and $3 billion in damage and economic loss, according to AccuWeather founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers.
The center of Isaias may pass rather close to New York City, which would be the second storm of the season to do so following Tropical Storm Fay in early July.
"The last time there have been two named tropical systems pass so close in the same season was in 1985 when Gloria and Henri passed over Long Island, New York," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
"In 1960, Brenda and Donna passed within 40 miles of New York City," Buckingham added.
The track of Isaias will be somewhat different and will have different impacts when compared to Fay from early July. Isaias will initially track farther west and well inland over the mid-Atlantic compared to Fay, which moved onshore just north of Atlantic City, New Jersey.
Isaias's stronger winds will affect more land areas of the coastal mid-Atlantic as well as a large part of the Chesapeake and Delaware bays compared to Fay. The storm surge caused by Isaias will be a few feet higher than Fay's, and coastal flooding could be more significant. Gusts from the east and south may be stronger and could more easily knock down trees and cause power outages this time from eastern North Carolina to eastern New York state and in portions of New England.
Forecasters warn that people should not focus on just the center of the storm and the eye track. However, impacts from the storm will increase in area, and drenching rain will spread farther west as the system moves through the mid-latitudes. The strongest winds can extend well to the east of the center, particularly along the immediate coast.
Isaias has been deemed a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the U.S. The more nuanced scale introduced by the company in 2019 includes more factors than the winds of a tropical system and takes into account rainfall amounts and flooding impacts.
One of the main threats for the areas from Virginia to Maine will be from torrential rain that can lead to flash, urban and small-stream flooding.
"An increase in forward speed is expected through Wednesday and the swath of heaviest rain will shift from east of the center to the northern and western part of the storm as it moves over land in the Carolinas and track through coastal areas of the Northeast states," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller explained.
A general 2-4 inches of rain is forecast from the accelerating storm in the Northeast, but a swath of 4-8 inches of rain is anticipated in eastern Virginia and part of Maryland, where an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 10 inches can occur.
In areas where the ground is rather wet, flash flooding can occur with a mere 2-3 inches of rain from the storm. Yet in other locations, in some cases a few dozen miles away, it may take 4-6 inches of rain for flooding. Pockets of 6-inch rainfall can occur anywhere in the general 2- to 4-inch swath of rain.
As of Tuesday morning, the Isaias has produced close to 7 inches of rain in Leonardtown, Maryland, with 6.69 inches falling on Stafford, Virginia, and 4.06 inches at Goldsboro, North Carolina.
The zone from eastern Virginia to part of central Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania and eastern upstate New York will be at the greatest risk for flooding, based on the track of this storm. Few problems related to rainfall are likely over central and eastern New England, coastal New Jersey and New York City to Long Island, New York.
Pockets of rain and isolated torrential downpours were already spreading northward through Virginia and southern Maryland from Monday afternoon.
The steadiest and heaviest rain arrived Monday evening across southeastern Virginia and continued to spread over the Interstate-95 swath from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia late Monday night. Rain is likely to spread northward over New York City and into the Boston area during the day on Tuesday.
Winds will also increase as the rain continues to fall. Motorists could face delays due to ponding and poor visibility on the roads, and airline delays are likely to mount as winds pick up and the visibility deteriorates.
Some areas that have dodged soaking rainfall during much of July may greatly benefit from the rain, including parts of New England and, to some extent, the central Appalachians.
Much less rain is forecast to fall with Isaias from the western parts of North Carolina and Virginia to northern New York state and northwestern New England, based on the current track. However, some moisture from a non-tropical system can become intertwined with Isaias' rain over these regions.
In terms of wind, the strongest gusts will occur east of the track of Isaias and can reach strong tropical storm force along the immediate coasts of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York state, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine as the storm accelerates northeastward.
"Frequent wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected from southeastern Virginia to southeastern New England," Miller said.
Around New York City, most street-level winds can peak near 60 mph, but gusts over some of the tops of the buildings and highest bridges can be higher and perhaps close to 70 mph.
Gusts close to 70 mph can occur along the Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey coasts and perhaps the south shore of Long Island, New York.
The gusts will become strong enough to knock over trees and break large tree limbs. "As the limbs come down, power outages can occur, and some streets and secondary roads may be blocked by debris as the storm moves along into early Wednesday," Miller explained.
Impacts from Isaias are likely to be more significant in some areas when compared to Fay from earlier this summer but perhaps not as bad as from Irene during late August 2011. Irene peaked as a Category 3 hurricane, while Fay was only a moderate tropical storm and Isaias is forecast to be at tropical storm strength while moving through the Northeast.
Coastal areas will be at risk for a period of above-normal tides and storm surge flooding as the flow of air around Isaias directs ocean water westward for a time. A storm surge of 3-6 feet can occur in southeastern Virginia Monday night into Tuesday with 1-3 feet more likely farther to the north in coastal areas of the Northeast from Tuesday to early Wednesday.
"Given the strong southerly surface winds and high tide coinciding around the same time, there is the potential for a 3- to 5-foot storm surge well to the north over the Chesapeake Bay during Tuesday as well," AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Kayla St. Germain said.
A storm surge topping 3 feet is possible over the upper part of the Delaware Bay.
Since the storm will be increasing its forward speed, the period of strong winds and coastal flooding may be limited to 12 hours or so from the upper mid-Atlantic coast through New England but perhaps more like 24 hours and two high-tide cycles in southeastern Virginia.
Following its impact on the U.S., Isaias is forecast to spread a swath of rain and gusty winds rapidly through a portion of Atlantic Canada Wednesday into Thursday.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already left its mark in history with several of the earliest-forming tropical storms on record. Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias all set early-season formation records for their respective letter. All of the July-forming storms from Edouard through Isaias broke the records set during the infamous 2005 season.
Hanna became the first hurricane of the 2020 season, and Isaias became the second.
There is a high potential that the 2020 season could become “hyperactive” as the peak of hurricane season nears and tropical storm numbers may end up rivaling the historic 2005 season numbers, which produced 28 storms. AccuWeather meteorologists are already monitoring a few areas of disturbed weather beyond Isaias.