Automobile sales data for July put out by companies over the weekend had raised hopes that an economic recovery may be near. Those hopes looked somewhat forlorn on Monday, after IHS Markit released its Purchasing Managers’ Index figure for the manufacturing sector in India. It showed a dip to 46 in July from 47.2 in June. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction, and the latest number marks a fourth straight month of it.
With our lockdown gradually being lifted, commerce was expected to pick up. But India is also seeing a sharp rise in covid cases—we are now recording the second-highest daily case count in the world after the US. As new hotspots emerge, localized lockdowns have been enforced. But it’s not just the physical disruption of the pandemic that has hurt economic prospects. Uncertainty has warped private spending and investment decisions. Rural India remains a relatively bright spot, but the rest of our economy is still reeling from the crisis we’re beset with. Most factories are now allowed to operate, but supply is pointless without the requisite demand for manufactured goods. Alas, August may not be much better.