Dragged by extended lockdowns\, FMCG sector to register flat growth in 2020: Nielsen
NEW DELHI: India's fast moving consumer goods (
FMC)
sector is expected
to witness
flat growth in 2020 following severe and extended lockdowns, restrictions on manufacturing units, social distancing norms and store closures, according
to data analytics firm Nielsen.
Earlier, on April 30, in the middle of the lockdown, Nielsen had slashed the growth forecast for the
FMCG
sector by almost half
to 5-6 per cent for 2020 citing adverse impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Though the
FMCG industry has shown some sign of improvements in June, but in the first half of the year (January-June) the industry growth slipped
to negative with 6 per cent decline.
"Keeping these unprecedented dynamics in the market, Nielsen has revised its outlook and is expecting the year
to be in the
flat growth range (-) 1 per cent
to 1 per cent for branded
FMCG industry in India, as against a 5-6 per cent growth projected earlier this year," said Nielsen.
This is the second revision of the forecast by Nielsen for 2020, amid coronavirus pandemic and subsequent disruption in the market and supply chain.
Nielsen had on January 21, projected a 9
to 10 per cent growth for the
FMCG industry with a "stable" outlook on the back of favourable macroeconomic factors.
"The bellwether
FMCG industry, which was trying
to revive from a difficult 2019, had a significant hit in the April-June quarter with a 17 per cent decline in sales value as compared
to the same quarter of 2019," said Nielsen.
However, Nielsen expects an uptick in demand in October-December quarter during the festive seasons as food categories are expected
to see a higher growth, while July-September quarter is also likely
to see some growth.
According
to the report, the
FMCG industry would have rural dividends, which has recovered and bounced back from the COVID-19 impact.
"Rural India has been comparatively insulated from COVID-19 so far, however its spread is now reaching the hinterland. Having said that, we do expect an overall positive uptick due
to reverse migration," said Nielsen.
Moreover, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) wages are at an all time high and rural disbursement against the programme is more than double of same period last year, it added.
Rural India contributes around 36
to 37 per cent of the total
FMCG sales, bulk of which is contributed by food items.