Lockdown relaxations push India Covid peak to Sept

Latest projections by the Times Fact-India Outbreak Report indicates that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86 lakh active cases on September 03 according to most likely scenario and as per SEIR model the peak is projected at 10.15 lakh active cases on September 01

The new COVID-19 hotspots, Pune and Bengaluru are exhibiting worrying trends.

Following the implementation of lockdown relaxations to revive the nation’s economy, several states recorded a surge in cases, which has further pushed India’s COVID-19 peak to September 03. Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several months, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, released its latest projections and highlights that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86 lakh active cases on September 03 according to most likely scenario and as per SEIR model the peak is projected at 10.15 lakh active cases on September 01. The report shows that following India's peak, daily active case counts will decline by November 17, thereby establishing India’s recovery from COVID-19. This was earlier projected to end by mid-October.

The study shows that the easing of mobility restrictions has led to abandoning of safety protocols and significantly contributing to India’s peak being pushed. A continued failure to practise social distancing could very well skew India's coronavirus curve further to the right and upwards, yielding a higher peak, and more distant end date, indicates the report.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways

1. RO or the basic reproduction number/rate, for India is slowly going down to 1.63 from 1.69 in last 20 days.
2. All the major states except Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana, still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.5.
3. The Southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu continue to exhibit worrying COVID-19 trends.
4. While Mumbai has put the worst behind, the new COVID-19 hotspots are Bengaluru and Pune.
5. Chennai, Bengaluru, Thane and Pune still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.9 and R0 for all other major cities is still above 1.6 but showing a slow downward trend.
6. Active cases of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been growing rapidly with 10 and 12 days doubling time respectively.
7. 31% of the active cases in India is from Maharashtra, however the average growth rate is 3% (7 days average).
8. The Eastern States including West Bengal could emerge as trouble spots in the event if the trend continues.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: State and City Wise Projections

For details on the study findings and insights, visit - https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts

Methodology: Led by insights and efficacy, Times Fact India Outbreak Report a joint endeavour by Times Network and global data and digital consulting firm Protiviti, has achieved an accuracy rate of 90% for active cases for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is based on two models, The Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in other countries affected by Covid-19 in addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. Drawing critical information from central government data, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the report is a holistic COVID -19 projection for the nation

Disclaimer: The COVID-19 Pandemic, is rapidly evolving, with new findings and insights being discovered daily. Stories based on the research document contains the observations and conclusions arrived at by Protiviti and Times Network basis the data and information examined and relied. Stories based on this document do not constitute or claim to serve as an advisory for any medical, safety or regulatory action and cannot be referred and relied in any disputes for challenging any other claims, reports, analysis of third parties on similar subject.