Vid nearing 13k, Covid peak @75k likely by mid-August

Nagpur: Even though Vidarbha has reported over 1,000 Covid cases, including 500 in the city alone, and increased number of casualties in the last two days in July, the region is nowhere near the peak of the outbreak. The reality is that we have only begun to see the surge, say experts.
Vidarbha’s total Covid-19 tally is nearing 13,000-mark with 555 cases reported in a single day on Monday. In view of the projected peak at 75,801 cases in Vidarbha, extreme caution and self-discipline is required now, say experts.
Based on the present situation, scientists have projected that Covid-19 outbreak would reach its peak by mid-August in many parts of the country. Data analysis of New Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Nashik and the recent one in Akola also shows that Covid spread comes under control only after a certain peak.
The office of commissioner of health services, Mumbai, had in April projected the probable number of cases in a day and 10 days during peak of Covid-19. As per the projections, Vidarbha will have total 75,801 cases as the Covid-19 peak. (10 days preceding these numbers will be considered as the peak period). These include 18,902 cases from Nagpur district, of which 11,114 will be in city. At present, Nagpur district has less than 5,000 cases and Vidarbha is near 13,000, which suggests that the anticipated peak is still far away.
Interestingly, the same projection had stated that Akola Municipal Corporation will reach Covid-19 peak at 1,475 cases. Akola reached this number on July 20. Since then, the cases there are declining. On July 28, Akola Municipal Corporation area reported just three new cases and seven from the district.
A divisional health department senior official, who is member of National Task Force on Covid-19, said different areas in the country will reach peak at different times. After Delhi and Mumbai, now peak is being seen in Thane, Pune and Nashik. Vidarbha will witness the peak in mid-August, he added.
“It’s a crucial phase for Maharashtra, because after Mumbai, Covid-19 is shifting its epicentre to other parts of the state,” he said adding that lockdowns were used to build-up health care facilities. “Now, most tehsil headquarters have Covid Care Centres where asymptomatic patients can be treated. People are more aware about facts, and symptoms. With this, we can avoid deaths,” he added.
“More lockdown means more delay,” said veteran pulmonologist Dr Ashok Arbat, who has been studying international data of Covid-19 since the beginning of the outbreak.
“Government is well aware of this peak as it had projected the same in April itself. Due to lockdowns in April, May and June, this peak got delayed. With easing of the lockdown in July, we are moving towards the projected peak. Now we should move ahead with caution, but without fear,” he said.
Following hand hygiene, Covid distancing, wearing mask and avoiding unnecessary gatherings must be our mantra during this period, said Dr Arbat.
What National Task Force on Covid-19 says
Different parts of country will peak at different times
Delhi is one such state where flattening of the curve is happening
Mumbai, Ahmedabad and certain parts in the South are showing a decline
They seem to have reached a plateau and are showing a downward trend
However, there are other areas where cases are increasing
How local experience goes
Epidemiologically, reaching a peak means we begin to see a decline in cases
Mumbai recorded lowest cases in 100 days on July 28
Akola district’s recovery rate is 81%, only 10 cases on July 28
Malegaon’s recovery rate 87%, only one case on July 28
Pune is now witnessing biggest rise in cases followed by Thane
Takeaway message for Vidarbha
Health department has projected 75,801 cases in Vidarbha during peak
Presently, we have less than 13k cases, so our march toward Covid-19 peak has just started
Lockdowns may reduce this pace, but curve will flatten only post-peak
Localized Covid-19 facilities, responsible behaviour, lifestyle changes must
Managing asymptomatic patients at home will make sure beds are available for serious patients