How effective are lockdowns? Jury is still out

Nagpur: The city will follow two days of janata curfew this weekend. Municipal commissioner Tukaram Mundhe has also made it clear that he will enforce at least 14-day complete curfew-like lockdown, if people don’t follow Covid distancing rules, and adapt lifestyle changes as per new normal.
However, several districts in Vidarbha have already followed this model of weekend lockdown, or various other models of lockdown in July. Data from four districts in Vidarbha which experienced total lockdowns of various durations this month shows that these restrictions hardly reduce the number of Covid-19 cases or deaths.
In fact, in many instances, the surge in cases remained the same or even went up during the lockdown.
Chandrapur observed complete lockdown between July 17 and 20, and highest number of cases were registered in these four days. Buldhana is under lockdown from July 7 and cases are still surging along with Covid-19 deaths. Same applies to Akola, Washim and Amravati.
“Lockdown reduces the speed of infection. But, number of cases can surge during the period of lockdown. This is because most of these patients are reported before the lockdown,” said Hrusheekesh Modak, district collector of Washim. According to him, many factors, including projection of patients, are studied before declaring lockdown in districts.
“Cases will reduce post lockdown period for some days. But, they will grow again for sure after life returns to normal. But, this post-lockdown breathing period gives administration the valuable time to enhance health facilities,” Modak added.
Akola’s resident deputy collector Sanjay Khadse claimed that the effect of four-day lockdown was positive. “Number of cases may be same or more than usual, but we have been implementing containment measures very effectively during lockdown. Akola is the first municipal corporation in Maharashtra to have got Covid-19 infections under control,” he claimed.
Doctors have different opinion. Physician Dr Ajay Sahu said that mere lockdown is not enough. “Instead of imposing a lockdown, we must increase testing for Covid-19. Process to get tested should be simple, waiting period must be less, and facilities like home quarantine and home isolation should start. This will bring more presumptive patients out at early stage and increase recovery rate further,” he said.
A senior doctor on the state’s advisory panel, requesting anonymity, said lockdowns for short periods would not have any impact given the incubation period of novel coronavirus.
“The idea of a lockdown was good when the source of the infection was known and the administration was trying to limit its spread. Now, in most of Maharashtra, there is localised community transmission. In such a situation, the lockdown is not very effective. Instead, people should follow rules, wear masks, wash hands and avoid crowded places,” said the doctor.
“It’s high time that we must learn to live with Covid-19. Young and healthy should be allowed to move while elderly and vulnerable people should be protected. Instead of total lockdown, clever lockdown is must,” said veteran pulmonologist Dr Ashok Arbat from Nagpur.