Terrifying prediction: The rise and rise of covid
Photo by Kaushik JN/MMCL
Experts use predictive analysis to project that state will have over 5 lakh cases and close to 9,000 deaths by August
The rate at which Covid-19 cases are surging inKarnataka , seems like Health Minister Sriramulu's invocation of divine intervention may not have been uncalled for.
Picture this: By August 23, the State will see a 10-fold increase in Covid-19 cases and its fatalities will be up by 9.35 times.
Karnataka will see 5.06 lakh cases and register 8,987 deaths, contributing to close to 20 per cent of the total Covid-19 cases in India.
These are numbers provided by a team of experts from Information Technology and Public Health sectors from India, the UK, US, Brazil and Colombia, who used predictive analysis to get a grip on the covid case data.
The number of cases being on the rise is not alarming, but the projected fatalities certainly is.
Presently, the mortality rate of Karnataka is hovering around 1.9 per cent, which is among the highest in the country when compared to much worse affected states such as Tamil Nadu,Maharashtra and Delhi.
Subramanian S, Serial Entrepreneur and Founder-CEO of the city-based Pratian Technologies, collaborated with other experts to crunch numbers for the comparative study of Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka after availing of the datasets from the respective governments and their official websites.
Earlier, he had done predictive analytics for the entire country.
From no-risk to high-risk state
Karnataka, which was a no-risk State in March has become a high-risk one in July. The State continues to be a low-risk region vis-à-vis neighbouring Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
But once the lockdown was eased, the number of cases were on a rise throughout June. In July, the pandemic exploded, registering a steep increase in numbers and deaths reducing the doubling rate to just a week.
"The numbers are worrying and the government seems to have no clue about the lurking danger,’’ he said, adding that several factors could be behind the State slipping from a risk-level five in March to risk-level two now.
According to former Health Minister UT Khadar, "Complacency, failure to ramp up medical care infrastructure during three-month lockdown, and lack of clear planning along with infighting among Ministers took a toll on Covid-19 care which has caused Karnataka's fall from one of the model States to the top four worst infected States in the country.’’
"I do not think even God can help us now,’’ he said, blaming both the Centre and the State governments and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) for not making the projections public.
"It is possible to prepare when you know what the situation would be,’’ he opined.
Lockdown of little use
Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa on Saturday refused to extend the lockdown purportedly due to the State’s poor financial position.
Revenue MinisterR Ashoka said that extending the lockdown would only push back the number of infections for that period of time.
"Instead, we can control the pandemic with effective measures like increasing the number of tests, expediting test results, effective testing, tracing and treating patients besides tightening surveillance,’’ he said.
Subramanian suggests that a "strict lockdown for three weeks across the State could help Karnataka bring the numbers down from 5.06 lakh to 4.09 lakh, while reducing deaths from 8,987 to 7,260". Subramanian said the State could use the lockdown period to improve medical and other facilities to fight the pandemic effectively.
Flattens by December
With the peak expected by October in Karnataka, the virus could register a steep fall by December. According to the predictive numbers, the number of cases will fall drastically in December and the curve will start flattening. By December 31, the number of new cases would be just around 3 and the active numbers will be 574.
By then, Karnataka would have registered a total of 18,88,161 Covid-19 cases and 21,946 deaths, the predictive analytics suggested.
The rate at which Covid-19 cases are surging in
Picture this: By August 23, the State will see a 10-fold increase in Covid-19 cases and its fatalities will be up by 9.35 times.
Karnataka will see 5.06 lakh cases and register 8,987 deaths, contributing to close to 20 per cent of the total Covid-19 cases in India.
These are numbers provided by a team of experts from Information Technology and Public Health sectors from India, the UK, US, Brazil and Colombia, who used predictive analysis to get a grip on the covid case data.
Chart- Projection
The number of cases being on the rise is not alarming, but the projected fatalities certainly is.
Presently, the mortality rate of Karnataka is hovering around 1.9 per cent, which is among the highest in the country when compared to much worse affected states such as Tamil Nadu,
Subramanian S, Serial Entrepreneur and Founder-CEO of the city-based Pratian Technologies, collaborated with other experts to crunch numbers for the comparative study of Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka after availing of the datasets from the respective governments and their official websites.
Earlier, he had done predictive analytics for the entire country.
Chart-Actual
From no-risk to high-risk state
Karnataka, which was a no-risk State in March has become a high-risk one in July. The State continues to be a low-risk region vis-à-vis neighbouring Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
But once the lockdown was eased, the number of cases were on a rise throughout June. In July, the pandemic exploded, registering a steep increase in numbers and deaths reducing the doubling rate to just a week.
"The numbers are worrying and the government seems to have no clue about the lurking danger,’’ he said, adding that several factors could be behind the State slipping from a risk-level five in March to risk-level two now.
According to former Health Minister UT Khadar, "Complacency, failure to ramp up medical care infrastructure during three-month lockdown, and lack of clear planning along with infighting among Ministers took a toll on Covid-19 care which has caused Karnataka's fall from one of the model States to the top four worst infected States in the country.’’
"I do not think even God can help us now,’’ he said, blaming both the Centre and the State governments and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) for not making the projections public.
"It is possible to prepare when you know what the situation would be,’’ he opined.
Lockdown of little use
Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa on Saturday refused to extend the lockdown purportedly due to the State’s poor financial position.
Revenue Minister
"Instead, we can control the pandemic with effective measures like increasing the number of tests, expediting test results, effective testing, tracing and treating patients besides tightening surveillance,’’ he said.
Subramanian suggests that a "strict lockdown for three weeks across the State could help Karnataka bring the numbers down from 5.06 lakh to 4.09 lakh, while reducing deaths from 8,987 to 7,260". Subramanian said the State could use the lockdown period to improve medical and other facilities to fight the pandemic effectively.
Flattens by December
With the peak expected by October in Karnataka, the virus could register a steep fall by December. According to the predictive numbers, the number of cases will fall drastically in December and the curve will start flattening. By December 31, the number of new cases would be just around 3 and the active numbers will be 574.
By then, Karnataka would have registered a total of 18,88,161 Covid-19 cases and 21,946 deaths, the predictive analytics suggested.
