BHUBANESWAR: A team of researchers from two premier institutions of the City has cautioned policymakers against increase in transmission of Covid 19 during the peak of monsoon and winter across the country. The study conducted by researchers from IIT-Bhubaneswar and AIIMS claimed that the transmission rate of Covid-19 decreases with the rise in temperature.

They also warned that monsoon rainfall and cooling of the atmosphere coupled with progression towards winter may environmentally favour coronavirus transmission in the country. The research report, available on the website of Preprints, has not been peer reviewed yet. Titled ‘The Covid-19 spread in India and its dependence on temperature and relative humidity,’ the study was conducted using simple statistical method. It takes into account the pattern and number of Covid cases across all 28 states from April to June.

The researchers claimed that surface air temperature is closely related to Covid-19 and its spread. “Low temperature and high humidity appears to favour spread of the disease. An increase in temperature by one degree leads to 0.99 % decrease in number of Covid-19 cases and increases the doubling time by 1.13 days,” they claimed.

The researchers insisted that the increase in relative humidity tends to decrease the growth rate of disease and its doubling time by 1.18 days. “The mean difference in temperature (average) of seven degrees between winter and summer points to possibility for greater spread of Covid-19 from an environmental perspective. Policymakers must take targeted decisions that may also include environmental information to slow the spread,” said V Vinoj, assistant professor at School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Science at IIT Bhubaneswar, who has led the research.

However, it may be stressed that actual spread will eventually depend on human intervention such as strict enforcement of universal masking, physical distancing and improved hand hygiene, he added. Based on statistical analysis, Vinoj said it was found that countries on northern hemisphere have higher cases than those in southern hemisphere. “More research needs to be done as other factors like enforcement of physical distancing, masking and hand hygiene are also responsible for transmission of the virus,” the researcher added.