Global oil demand will soar by a record 7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus crisis but will remain below 2019 levels, Opec said in its monthly report.
It was the first report in which Opec assessed oil markets next year. It said the forecast assumed no further downside risks materialised in 2021 such as US-China trade tensions, high debt levels or a second wave of coronavirus infections.
“This assumes that Covid-19 is contained, especially in major economies, allowing for recovery in private household consumption and investment, supported by the massive stimulus measures undertaken to combat the pandemic,” Opec said.
Oil prices collapsed this year after global demand fell by a third when governments imposed lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus.
OPEC said in 2020 oil demand would drop by 8.95 million bpd, slightly less than in last month's report.
In 2021, it expects efficiency gains and remote working to cap demand growth, keeping demand below record 2019 levels.
OPEC expects to cover the lion's share of the massive projected demand spike in 2021 with demand for its crude rising by 6 million bpd to reach 29.8 million bpd.