Sydney expects burst of wind and rain while heavy snow and dangerous surf to hit NSW
An intense low-pressure system forming off NSW has brought the biggest dump of snow to the state's highest resorts for the season, heavy rain to the South Coast and the prospect of dangerous surf and storms reaching Sydney and beyond in coming days.
The complex system, which models have found difficult to predict, looks likely to move away from NSW faster than forecast, reducing the damage from wild weather, Ben Domensino, a meteorologist from Weatherzone, said.
Parts of Sydney copped heavy rain on Sunday afternoon and more is likely on Tuesday when the influence of a low-pressure system off the NSW coast moves north.Credit:Nick Moir
"This system had the potential to be quite bad for Sydney," Mr Domensino said. "We're likely to be spared from the most intense impacts."
Even so, a small low within the broader system will still bring a burst of wind and rain to the Illawarra, Sydney and up to Newcastle during Tuesday, he said.
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting as much as 6 millimetres of rain on Monday, with the chance of a thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening. Rainfall could be as much as 30 millimetres at Observatory Hill on Tuesday, with winds reaching up to 55km/h early on Tuesday morning.
Thunderstorms, like this one on Sunday evening, may be possible along parts of the NSW coast on Monday and Tuesday.Credit:Nick Moir
The bureau has also issued a warning of hazardous surf from Byron down to the Victorian border on Tuesday, with an alert for people to "consider staying out of the water and avoid walking near surf-exposed areas".
Perhaps the most unusual event so far has been the amount of snow reaching the higher peaks of the NSW Alps – such as Thredbo and Perisher – from the east.
"There's a big stream of moisture that focused off south-east NSW and far-eastern Victoria," Mr Domensino said. The Alps would typically get most of their snow from interactions between moisture from north-western Australia and cold air coming up from the Southern Ocean.
Snowfalls so far are about 35 centimetres, "easily the best snow we've seen" for NSW resorts this winter, he said.
Lower levels, though, will have collected rain rather than snow, creating slushy conditions for drivers, while the Victorian Alps have largely missed out.
For rain, the event has so far brought record July daily rainfall of 75.2 millimetres in the 24 hours to 9am on Monday for Montague Island, Mr Domensino said. Data goes back to 1956.
Other places with large totals include parts of the South Coast, which remain in drought. Bega and Merimbula both collected 56.4 millimetres in the same period, with further falls since.
The large pool of cold air that has helped drive the intensity of the current weather will also move across northern NSW on Monday, bringing the chance of snow flurries to the Northern and Central Tablelands, Mr Domensino said.
Given the less severe than expected impacts and the fact the system is unlikely to linger long near the NSW coast, it's unlikely it will be categorised as an east coast low, he said.
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