Coronavirus capital Victoria could see an explosion of 500 new cases a day by NEXT WEEK unless these important steps are taken - with experts warning there is a 50/50 chance lockdown measures won't work at all
- Modelling shows there could 500 cases of coronavirus a day in VIC by next week
- The explosion in cases would hinge on infections growing at current rates
- Meanwhile experts say there is only a 50/50 chance of eliminating COVID-19
- But closing schools and mandating face masks could be the path to elimination
Experts say there needs to be even stricter lockdown measures across Australia's coronavirus capital to have any real success at getting the virus under control.
Victoria is back under stage three restrictions after 216 new cases were detected on Saturday.
The worrying numbers have given Victoria the undesirable honour of being Australia's coronavirus capital, as it finally overtook the total number of cases in New South Wales.
New modelling reveals the state could see an explosion of 500 new cases a day by only next week if the rate of infection continues at its current pace.
But experts believe the introduction of stricter lockdown measures including mandating face masks and closing schools could be the path to elimination.
Experts believe the introduction of stricter lockdown measures including mandating face masks and closing schools could be the path to elimination (pictured, a group of women head out to the shops in face masks on Melbourne's streets on July 8)
The modelling from the University of New South Wales' Deborah Cromer predicts case numbers could double every five days if the infection rate continues at its current pace.
This would mean 500 new cases by Thursday, and 1,000 new cases by July 21, reported the Australian.
Dr Cromer said measures to keep the rate of infection are low, are vital.
'This is community transmission, a really serious problem,' Dr Cromer said.
'The lockdown is important. If nothing is done, then it will continue to take off, as we have seen elsewhere in the world.'
Victoria is back under stage three restrictions after 288 new cases were detected on Friday - the biggest daily spike of coronavirus cases since the pandemic took hold (pictured, Victoria Police officers patrol outside the Public Housing tower on Saturday morning)
Police walk dogs belonging to residents of the Alfred Street public housing tower which remains under tight lockdown (pictured on Saturday)
Public health experts say Victoria has a chance of eliminating COVID-19 if it enforces a strict lockdown, like the one imposed by Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand (pictured: Bourke Street Mall in Melbourne is empty on July 9 after the re-introduction of stage three restrictions)
She is hopeful existing measures to bring the state back into stage three restrictions could be enough to bring the rate of infection under control.
'You would hope to see some impact next week in the slowing down of the numbers, somewhere between the 13th (of July) and the 18th,' she said.
But some experts aren't convinced.
University of Melbourne Epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely believes the state should be aiming to eradicate the virus completely.
He said under existing measures there is only a 50/50 chance of eliminating the deadly virus, and stricter measures should be imposed.
'If we go for elimination rather than suppression, schools need to shut and stay shut,' Professor Blakely told Nine News.
He also agreed with recommendations to encourage more people to wear face masks.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the extension of school holidays for an extra week on Saturday morning (pictured: Brunswick East Primary School in Moreland is closed for deep cleaning after a positive COVID-19 case last month)
Experts say schools should be shut if authorities want any chance of eliminating coronavirus (Pictured: students sanitize before entering for the first day back at Lysterfield Primary School)
'The premier has said we need to start wearing masks, so, tick, that will help a little bit,' he said.
'There are extra things we could do to tighten up this lockdown to increase our chance of elimination and go for gold.'
He wants all households in Melbourne to be delivered masks in the next ten days, and wear them in all busy environments including supermarkets and public transport.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews confirmed on Saturday morning the government has put in an order for two million face-masks.
'Staying at home if you feel unwell is still the best way to slow the spread of coronavirus but wearing a cloth mask provides an additional physical barrier, adding one more layer of protection for you and those around you,' he said.
'Whether you are in an Uber or a taxi or if you are on public transport … or even shopping for the basics … we are simply asking that if you can wear a mask where you can't distance, that is exactly what we'd like you to do.'
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews confirmed on Saturday morning the government has put in an order for two million face-masks (Pictured: People are seen wearing face masks while shopping at the Queen Victoria Market on Saturday in Melbourne)
A woman wears a face mask while shopping for fresh produce at Melbourne's Queen Victoria Markets on Saturday morning (pictured)
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