Data Drive| Unlock 2: Covid-19 infection growth slows down

A higher positivity indicates that there are even more infections that will be revealed once states start to test more.

Although India is adding nearly 26,000 Covid-19 cases daily, infection growth seems to have fallen since the government announced Unlock 2. Data available for first nine days of July shows that daily average growth in cases has fallen to 3.4% as compared to 4% in the30 days of last month.

However, given that India’s base is large, even a 3% growth is quite high, juxtaposed against other economies with as many infections seeing infection growth at 1.5-2%. Moreover, infections seem to be moving to new hotspots. Karnataka, for instance, is growing at 8.3% since July 1, as compared to 5.6% in Unlock 1.

Telangana’s figures are also the same. Uttar Pradesh has eased off only marginally with a 3.6% growth. But the state also has a lower rate of testing than others. Deaths are on a similar trajectory; Karnataka has recorded an 8.5% increase in fatalities as compared to 5.5% in Unlock 1.

Deaths for Bihar are also higher, so is the case for Assam and Odisha. A higher positivity indicates that there are even more infections that will be revealed once states start to test more. There is an urgent need for revising the testing strategy.