Oli on dangerous ground as he seeks to split party

The ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is on the verge of implosion with Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli planning an ordinance to lower the benchmark for engineering a vertical intra-party split. The NCP is a product of merger of multiple Left parties, including that led by former prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a.k.a. Prachanda. Both Oli and Prachanda are joint chairpersons of the merged outfit. Following a major rebellion by Prachanda and others like another ex-PM Madhav Kumar Nepal, Oli intends to pull out his faction and take the support of the opposition to stay in power.

Weeks ago, Oli’s unilateral cartography to add three disputed regions in Uttarakhand to his country’s map was meant to deflect leadership attacks from within the party. That a comrade chose to invoke nationalism to change the headlines was bizarre enough. When that didn’t suffice, he accused India of plotting to unseat him. Last week, fearing a floor test demand from the Treasury to prove his majority, he got Parliament prorogued. At 174 seats, the NCP has close to a two-thirds majority in the House. If the party splits, reports suggest Oli could retain 78, while Prachanda and Nepal command the loyalty of 53 and 43 MPs respectively. The premier needs 138 for a simple majority.

Oli’s latest survival technique would perhaps make a chief minister across his country’s border, Nitish Kumar, grin. Nitish had fought the Bihar Assembly elections in 2015 in alliance with the RJD against the BJP and emerged victorious, got to lead the government because of a better image though the RJD was numerically stronger, but walked out of it to embrace the BJP in 2017 to stay in power. Nitish did a chameleon for self-preservation and survived but Oli might not be as lucky. For, no amount of airbrushing can hide his sloppy record at governance.

Antagonising India with which Nepal has deep cultural ties was his biggest misstep. Oli ought to realise that promulgating an ordinance through a pliant President to stay in power is a recipe for anarchy. And the political contortions the opposition would demand in exchange for support could make him even more unpopular, digging the Left grave one spadeful at a time. Nepal decidedly deserves better.