Low testing behind 40% drop in Covid-19 cases in June, say experts

CHANDIGARH: A reduction in testing is the reason behind a 40% decrease in Covid-19 cases in June as compared to May, according to public health experts.
Tests have gone down by 18% as compared to last month, an analysis of the sample tests conducted have shown. This comes at a time when the country is reporting a continuous surge in cases and health experts emphasising on enhancement in testing. They believe most of the cases are now at stage 3 of transmission — where the source of the virus is unknown — and testing is the only key to contain the spread. Official of the UT administration disagree, however.

“The ICMR protocol allows us to test only symptomatic people. We are following the government of India’s guidelines for testing,” says UT adviser Manoj Parida. But an epidemiologist in PGI counters the argument, calling it an incomplete protocol of the ICMR. “High-risk contacts who are asymptomatic can also be tested. This includes close community or family contacts of the patient,” he says.
May recorded the highest number of cases, when the testing was aggressive. According to data by the UT health department, there were 224 confirmed cases of the virus till May 28 and 3,215 samples were tested. In June till date, 2,639 tests were conducted and 135 cases confirmed as positive. “Testing, isolating and treatment are the only strategies that have been able to bring down the positive cases and flatten the curve,” says a public health expert in PGI.

Chandigarh has three centres that conduct the RT-PCR, the only gold standard test for the virus. They are at PGI, Government Medical College and Hospital, Sector 32, and Institute of Microbial Technology. All of them have a daily capacity of 1,200 tests per day. “Pool testing has started in all these centres to save resources. If the testing is reduced despite the facilities, it will only worsen the situation,” warns a doctor in PGI.
So, what can happen when testing is reduced and cases go undetected? “Already, more than 50% of the sectors in the city are affected by the virus. New cases have come from no family or community contact or even travel history. Going by the documented medical literature elsewhere, with low testing, the spread will become faster and those who are at risk will land up in hospitals,” says a public health expert.