Chennai will reach the peak of the Covid curve on July 3 with more than 21,000 active cases and will flatten it on September 30. On July 5, Tamil Nadu will reach the top of the curve with more than 30,000 active cases and will touch the baseline on September 29. Later by mid-July, India will hit the peak with 2.6 lakh active cases before reaching a baseline on September 19. These were projections for the month of July released by the Times Fact- India Outbreak Report.
The report, a joint effort by Times Network and data research firm Protiviti, encapsulates six national projections and includes individual analysis for eight states and four cities.
The projections were made based on three different models.
According to the ‘most likely’ model or scenario, Chennai, will have 21,268 active cases when it reaches the peak on July 3. But according to the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model, the city will reach the peak on July 6 with 19,054.
Similarly, the ‘most likely’ model projects Tamil Nadu’s peak to be on July 5 with 30,247 active cases while the SEIR model shows the peak to be on July 6 with 32,909 active cases.
According to the experts, the report took into account the healthcare capacity of the nation and its states, to understand shortfall of beds and availability of ICUs, in the event of an escalation. The report aims to empower the administrative authorities to spot possible hotspots, critical gaps and build capacity to meet the arising.
July projections were also made for other states including Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Bengal, Karnataka, Kerala, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Jaipur, Pune and Surat.
Maharashtra, which is the worst-hit state, is projected to hit peak on July 5 with 82,723 active cases as per the ‘most likely’ model while the SEIR model projects the peak on July 17 with 1.1 lakh active cases and reach the baseline on September 30. While Delhi is projected to reach peak on July 4, Mumbai and states like Gujarat and West Bengal may record peak cases by June end.
On July 15, India is projected to hit its peak of 2,59,967 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 15 and 3,86,916 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 25.
The report, a joint effort by Times Network and data research firm Protiviti, encapsulates six national projections and includes individual analysis for eight states and four cities.
The projections were made based on three different models.
According to the ‘most likely’ model or scenario, Chennai, will have 21,268 active cases when it reaches the peak on July 3. But according to the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model, the city will reach the peak on July 6 with 19,054.
Similarly, the ‘most likely’ model projects Tamil Nadu’s peak to be on July 5 with 30,247 active cases while the SEIR model shows the peak to be on July 6 with 32,909 active cases.
According to the experts, the report took into account the healthcare capacity of the nation and its states, to understand shortfall of beds and availability of ICUs, in the event of an escalation. The report aims to empower the administrative authorities to spot possible hotspots, critical gaps and build capacity to meet the arising.
July projections were also made for other states including Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Bengal, Karnataka, Kerala, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Jaipur, Pune and Surat.
Maharashtra, which is the worst-hit state, is projected to hit peak on July 5 with 82,723 active cases as per the ‘most likely’ model while the SEIR model projects the peak on July 17 with 1.1 lakh active cases and reach the baseline on September 30. While Delhi is projected to reach peak on July 4, Mumbai and states like Gujarat and West Bengal may record peak cases by June end.
On July 15, India is projected to hit its peak of 2,59,967 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 15 and 3,86,916 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 25.
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