Active cases likely to touch 25,000 by August 15: Karnataka State Covid-19 War Room

BENGALURU: There could be 25,000 active Covid-19 cases — patients under treatment — by August 15, the Karnataka State Covid-19 War Room has said, analysing data and monitoring trends of the spread. That would be a seven-fold rise of the count as of Monday, when the state reported 3,523 active cases.
Bengaluru alone had 919 active cases, while the total number of positive cases recorded in the state capital was 1,398. The state’s Covid caseload so far, including recoveries, stood at 9,399.
IAS officer and war room in-charge Munish Moudgil said: “It is extremely difficult to make accurate projections, particularly beyond 15-20 days. If the daily growth rate is 3% then the active cases will reach 17,000 but if it is 4% then the active numbers will reach 25,000 in 50-60 days.” As of Sunday evening, Karnataka’s average daily growth rate (calculated over the past five days) stood at 3.97%.
The war room had earlier predicted that the number of active cases will touch 10,000 in July. The number of Covid-19 positive cases has spiked in the past 15 days. The number of deaths too has registered a sharp rise, touching 137. The surge has been mostly triggered by returnees from other states, especially Maharashtra. A total of 5,639 of the state’s 9,150 Covid-19 cases recorded till Sunday had domestic travel history.
Projections may change depending on behaviour of citizens: Official
This apart, patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) are also increasingly testing positive for Covid-19. The increase in asymptomatic cases (88% of total cases) has also posed a great challenge to the authorities engaged in containing the spread of the virus.
Moudgil said the projections could change in the coming days, depending on the behaviour of citizens and actions of the government. “Every successful effort to reduce the growth rate will exponentially reduce numbers. Conversely, any slip-up makes us pay heavily,” he said, emphasising that the citizens can make a major difference by practising hygiene protocol and following social distancing measures.