Stats don’t always tell the story. Sometimes statistics tell us what we need to know about a player and sometimes those numbers are misleading.
Either way, for a quarterback, stats like passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions and quarterback rating give us an idea if that player is trending in the right direction. This year, stats won’t tell us if Jarrett Stidham is about to become a Hall-of-Fame player, but they’ll give us an idea if he’s the man for the [...]
Stats don’t always tell the story. Sometimes statistics tell us what we need to know about a player and sometimes those numbers are misleading.
Either way, for a quarterback, stats like passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions and quarterback rating give us an idea if that player is trending in the right direction. This year, stats won’t tell us if Jarrett Stidham is about to become a Hall-of-Fame player, but they’ll give us an idea if he’s the man for the job. Since he’s the one who will likely replace Tom Brady, his stats will certainly be analyzed and analyzed again.
That begs the question: What does Stidham have to do to be successful in his first year as a starter?
Do the Patriots need to win more than 10 games and make a playoff run? Does Stidham need to throw for more than 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns? Should his quarterback rating be above 90? How many interceptions are too many? What’s a good barometer for a quarterback in his second year?
Truthfully, it’s not entirely clear. For example, take a look at the three quarterbacks below. These stats are all from their second years in the NFL. Who would you prefer?
Player A: 2,843 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with an 86.5 quarterback rating.
Player B: 4,428 yards, 35 touchdowns and 18 interceptions with an 88.2 passer rating.
Player C: 3,284 17 touchdowns, 16 interceptions with a 76.9 passer rating.
Player A (Brady) and Player C (Drew Brees) are Hall of Famers. Player B is Blake Bortles, who statistically had one of the best seasons for a second-year quarterback over the last 20 years.
Expectations for Stidham are all over the map so we looked at every starting quarterback who played in the second year of their career since 2000. We decided to look at QBs who started at least 13 games. That gave us 53 quarterbacks who started a close-to-full season in Year 2 of their NFL journeys.
Of the 53 quarterbacks, 36 of them threw for more than 3,000 yards in their second NFL seasons. Only five players threw for more than 4,000 yards. That list includes Patrick Mahomes (the only player to throw for more than 5,000 yards), Bortles, Jeff Garcia (who was 30 after starting his career in the CFL), Deshaun Watson and Jameis Winston.
Of the 53 players, just eight quarterbacks threw for more than 30 touchdown passes in their second NFL seasons. That list includes Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Bortles, Daunte Culpepper, Carson Wentz, Carson Palmer and Garcia.
When it comes to passer rating, 13 players had a quarterback rating of over 90. That included players like Mitchell Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Josh Freeman and Jared Goff.
Interestingly enough, 22 of those 53 quarterbacks won 10 or more games in their second NFL seasons. However, just four of those players won 12 or more games — Jackson (13-2), Russell Wilson (13-3), Mahomes (12-4) and Marc Bulger (12-3).
Of the 53 quarterbacks, 19 of them earned Pro Bowl honors. Just two (Mahomes and Jackson) were first-team All-Pros.
Another factor is where the players were drafted. It’s not unusual to see a first-round pick start by his second season. Of the 53 quarterbacks on this list, 35 of them were first-rounders. Only six of the 53 quarterbacks who started in their second NFL seasons were drafted in rounds 4-7. Stidham was a fourth-rounder.
That list includes Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Aaron Brooks, Bulger, Derek Anderson and Trevor Siemian.
Brady’s 2001 season is an interesting case study. He didn’t pass for 3,000 yards (2,843), or throw for 20 touchdowns (18) or have a quarterback rating over 90 (86.5). But he did win a Super Bowl. Brees also had a mediocre second NFL season. He threw for 3,284 yards to go with 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions with a 76.9 quarterback rating.
When you look at the top 10 performers in passing yards, passing touchdowns and passer rating, a couple of clear front-runners emerges. Mahomes had the best season by far, leading all three categories. Then you had in order, Jackson, Bortles, Watson, Wentz and Culpepper. Add wins into the equation and Bortles drops out of the top five with Mahomes, Jackson, Watson, Culpepper and Wentz having the most success for second-year quarterbacks.
Brady and Brees didn't hit the top marks here, which is a great lesson. After all, it’s not about the start of a quarterback’s journey, but the overall campaign. It’s about how he progresses.
That being said, if Stidham’s first year as a starter mirrors anything close to players like Mahomes, Watson or Wentz, the Patriots would be thrilled. But say the Pats fail to make the playoffs: Does it matter what Stidham does in the box score?
Like all these above, time will tell.
mdaniels@providencejourna.com
On Twitter @MarkDanielsPJ