The nearly normal progress of the monsoon, so far, is set to consolidate further and bring under its cover most of the landscape except parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh by June 25, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, said this while launching a weekly monsoon update series that also gives an outlook with respect its progress during the fortnight that follows. Everything looks good on the monsoon front with both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the thick of action.
Fireworks on West Coast
In a short-to-medium term forecast, the IMD said on Saturday that widespread rainfall along with heavy to very heavy falls is likely at a few places with extremely heavy at isolated place over Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai) during next two days.
Widespread rainfall along with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over the rest of the coast and also North-East India during the next five days. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is forecast over Central and adjoining East India during this period.
Heat waves absent
According to Mohapatra, what distinguishes this season from previous years is the near-total absence of the typically blistering heat waves. Below normal temperatures have surprised the IMD on the upside this year, though these were just playing out as per forecasts.
The monsoon is now being spearheaded by a low-pressure area that drifted in across the South Odisha coast and moved inland but which has weakened into a cyclonic circulation. One prognosis was that the circulation would travel West across Central India to the Konkan coast and step out into the Arabian Sea.
Fresh low next week
Along the way, it would carry boatloads of moisture swept initially from the Bay and progressively from the Arabian Sea as well as during an interaction with incoming western disturbances and dump heavy to very heavy rain over East, Central, West and adjoining North-West India.
Mohapatra said that the monsoon will have gained further momentum from a follow-up low-pressure area likely brewing over the North Bay around June 19. The IMD’s numerical predictions agree with this outlook but depicted a different scenario with respect to its genesis and track.
Numerical forecast outlook
As per this outlook, an incoming western disturbance would force the circulation over North Interior Odisha to retreat North-North-East towards East Uttar Pradesh-Bihar-West Bengal-Bangladesh only to be greeted by strong south-easterlies from the Bay, leading to its intensification as a low.
This low would in turn move back to East Uttar Pradesh by June 23 till when forecasts are available. A helpful trough extending from North-West to the South-East (Rajasthan to East India) across Central India will have been formed by then; a rudimentary structure was on show on Saturday as well.