Among the states headed for the Rajya Sabha election, Gujarat is important for the BJP as it could help the saffron party clinch an additional seat in the Upper House.
Elections to 18 Rajya Sabha seats, which were postponed due to the novel coronavirus outbreak earlier this year, are set to be held on June 19.
Of these 18 seats, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh have four vacant seats to be filled. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have three seats each. While Jharkhand has two seats up for polls, Manipur and Meghalaya have one seat each for which elections would be held.
The political context
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) enjoys a strong majority in the Lok Sabha, it lacks numbers in the Rajya Sabha. This has made it difficult for the party to pass contentious bills in the Upper House.
To pass key legislations in the House, the BJP has so far depended on support from parties beyond the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Yet, it has simultaneously worked to increase its tally as it won more states. The BJP’s numbers in the Rajya Sabha have steadily risen from the 2014-level.
As the number moves towards the majority mark in the House, holding on to each seat has become crucial for Opposition parties.
A Rajya Sabha Member of Parliament (MP)’s term lasts for six years. As a result, elections for one-third of all seats in the House take place every two years. Last such election happened in 2018.
There is already a formula in place to determine how many votes (seats) a person has to win in a state assembly, in order to get elected to Rajya Sabha.
Among the larger states, the BJP does not have enough Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) in Andhra Pradesh. Further, it does not command majority in the legislative assemblies of Rajasthan and Jharkhand — where the party is not in power.
Thus, Gujarat is a key state for the saffron party when it comes to bagging additional Rajya Sabha seats.
How things stand
Hectic political parleys are now underway in Gujarat as the date of Rajya Sabha polls nears. Three Congress MLAs resigned from the Assembly last week. This adds to similar resignations seen from their party colleagues in March.
While the Congress had won 77 seats in the 2017 Gujarat Assembly election, it is now reduced to 65 MLAs in the 182-member House.
This reduction in the number of Congress MLAs in the Assembly is likely to help the BJP get an additional candidate elected to the Rajya Sabha. Thus, Congress has started moving its Gujarat MLAs to resorts to avoid more legislators from resigning.
How the numbers are currently stacked
The Gujarat Assembly has a total strength of 182 members. However, due to resignations and vacancies, it only has 172 MLAs right now. This tally does not include the Speaker.
Of these 182, as many as 103 members belong to the BJP, 65 to the Congress, 1 to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), two from the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP). Then there is Jignesh Mevani as an Independent member.
A Rajya Sabha candidate in Gujarat needs 35 votes to get elected. Thus, the BJP currently needs two more votes to clinch three seats. The Congress is four votes short of winning a second seat.
Both sides are eyeing four votes that can go either way — two BTP MLAs, Mevani and one MLA from the NCP.
Candidates
The BJP has nominated Abhay Bhardwaj, an eminent lawyer from Rajkot, and Ramilaben Bara, a former government official and tribal from Sabarkantha. The party's additional candidate is Narhari Amin, a former Congress veteran.
The Congress has nominated its National Spokesperson Shaktisinh Gohil and former union minister Bharatsinh Solanki.
