Will BJP avenge its 2017 humiliation?

The Rajya Sabha clash in 2017 was essentially between two super strategists — Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary Ahmed Patel and then BJP president and PM Narendra Modi’s confidant Amit Shah. Will 2020 Rajya Sabha election unfold another nailbiting drama?

In the much celebrated Hollywood blockbuster, The Godfather, (1969) Don Corleone remarks, “Revenge is a dish that tastes best when it is cold.” In the coming Rajyasabha elections, if all goes according to BJP strategist Amit Shah’s plans, he will be having the last laugh. If Amitbhai’s strategy works, it will upset the Congress plans of ensuring victory for both its candidates. Rajya Sabha elections for four seats from Gujarat are scheduled for June 19. BJP has fielded three candidates -- Ramilaben Bara, Abhay Bharadwaj and Narhari Amin. And Congress has put forth two candidates -- Shaktisinh Gohil and Bharatsinh Solanki. For the BJP, the defeat of a Congress candidate would mean Revenge Served.

The Rajya Sabha clash in 2017 was essentially between two super strategists — Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary Ahmed Patel and then BJP president and PM Narendra Modi’s confidant Amit Shah.
The BJP was all set to defeat Ahmed Patel. Less than a month before the electioncover, the then senior Congress leader Shankersinh Vaghela had quit the Congress and two of his loyalists — MLAs Raghavji Patel and Bholabhai Gohel — had turned rebels and voted in the favour of BJP candidate who again was a senior Congressman who donned the BJP hat just before the election.

The entire plot was clear and hatched well. Amit Shah’s strategies are foolproof. However, on election day, the plot went haywire. Shaktisinh Gohil of the Congress was Ahmed Patel’s election agent and he scored the winning shot for Ahmed Patel. An alert Gohil got the voting process stalled, demanding invalidation of both Raghavji’s and Bholabhai’s votes. Gohil claimed that the two rebel candidates had shown the votes to the BJP which was unconstitutional. A legal drama ensued and went on for seven hours after 3.30 pm. It was only after midnight that the Election Commission of India took the decision of declaring Ahmed Patel a winner. Had this lacunae not been spotted, Ahmed Patel was sure to lose the crucial Rajya Sabha election.

Circa 2020. The ‘Revenge’ plot is expected to make a comeback. The Rajya Sabha election which was earlier scheduled on March 26 saw several Congress leaders turning rebels and joining the saffron camp. The Congress had shifted all their MLAs to Jaipur. However, coronavirus saw the election being postponed, The elections were scheduled for March 26 when there were 44 cases and three deaths in Gujarat . On June 4, there were over 18,601 cases and 1,155 deaths in Gujarat which tops Indian states when it comes to mortality rate. However, as the show must go on, politics has taken over corona in the state. Here’s how the RS battle is shaping up even as the state fights the deadly pandemic.


Two more resign from Congress
On Thursday, two MLAs from the Congress tendered their resignations, giving BJP which has fielded three candidates an upper hand. The Congress MLAs who resigned are Karjan MLA Akshay Patel and Karparda MLA Jeetu Chaudhary. In March, five Congress MLAs had resigned -- Pravin Maru from Gadhada, Pradyumansinh Jadeja from Abdasa, Soma Koli Patel from Limbdi, J V Kakadia from Dhari and Mangal Gavit from Dang.

With seven MLAs gone, Congress strength in the house is 66 against BJP’s 103. Congress is unsure if it can bank on NCP MLA Kandhal Jadeja. Meanwhile, the NCP has replaced its Gujarat chief Shankarsinh Vaghela reportedly over difference of opinion with the party on whom to support during RS polls.


In 2017, Shankersinh Vaghela had quit Congress. His political aide and spokesperson Parthesh tweeted on Thursday: “I don’t know how many people have noticed the blatant match-fixing between Amitbhai Shah, Prafulbhai Patel and Ahmedbhai Patel.”


Vaghela told mediapersons on Thursday, “I asked the MLA (Kandhal Jadeja) to give mandate to give vote to Congress, else he will be disqualified. However, that question doesn’t exist now (as Vaghela has been removed as NCP’s Gujarat president) and I shouldn’t stay in the party which does ‘match-fixing.’”


Rebellion in Congress
It was earlier presumed BJP would win two seats and Congress would win two. The BJP was clear about the candidates. Gujarat Congress under the State Congress president Amit Chavda had said they would accept the candidates High Command decides, but were unhappy with Rajiv Shukla’s name being chosen. So, senior Congress leaders got into a rebellion mode and insisted Bharatsinh Solanki should be the candidate instead of Rajiv Shukla.

Advantage BJP

Though BJP was likely to get only two of the four seats, it announced a third candidate -- Narhari Amin. Strategically smart and politically suave, BJP got into action mode when Gujarat Congress kept on squabbling amongst themselves; it lost five MLAs in March itself. There was even a buzz in Congress that at least one senior leader from Gujarat Congress was in direct touch with BJP high command especially Mr Amit Shah.

Karjan MLA Akshay Patel Resigns on Thursday

The whip

With rebellion brewing within the Congress, the high command decided that all first votes of the Congress will go to Shaktisinh Gohil and the second to second candidate Bharat Solanki. Looking at the way things are moving in BJP and Congress, it seems the 2020 RS polls will be as interesting as 2017. Now with seven MLAs gone from Congress, BJP is already grinning. If its strategy works, one of the two Congress candidates will taste defeat. And it is Gohil who is the thorn in the eye of the saffron party.
A union BJP minister categorically told Mirror that “at all costs” the BJP does not want Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil to be in Rajyasabha.


Shaktisinh on
a sticky wicket?

“We are okay with Bharat Solanki in the Rajyasabha but we will not let Shaktisinh Gohil win. His entry into Rajyasabha will be very problematic for us”, the minister said claiming that even if Congress has decided that all first votes would go to Shaktisinh Gohil and only after his votes are secured, will the second votes go to Bharat Solanki, “You wait and watch. That may not happen.” A Congress MLA who has turned rebel told Mirror, “I think the BJP strategy will work and if Shaktisinh Gohil loses Rajya Sabha, it will be the best revenge against Congress. He had ensured Ahmed Patel’s victory in 2017 and these days he is close to Rahul Gandhi. Shaktisinh’s defeat will be the best gift Amit Shah can give to Rahul Gandhi.”


The MLA clarified that this ‘setting’ is not possible without senior Gujarat Congress leaders in the know of it. “Incidentally, June 19 is Rahul Gandhi’s birthday. A Congress defeat would be the best birthday gift from the BJP on June 19,” he said. Both Bharatsinh Solanki and Shaktisinh Gohil were not available for comments. Shaktisinh is in his village, mourning the death of his mother whom he lost on Tuesday.


Each candidate requires
34.6 votes to win

All eyes are on four MLAs who will seal the fate of the candidates. They are Chhotu Vasava and Mahesh Vasava from Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP), Kandhal Jadeja from Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Jignesh Mevani. While Jadeja is expected to vote for the BJP, Mevani has declared allegiance with Congress. The two votes from BTP are still uncertain. Each candidate would require 34.6 votes for victory as per the latest tally of MLAs. With Jadeja’s vote, the ruling party can reach the magic figure of 104 votes while Congress, even with support of the two BTP MLAs, will slightly fall short of the required around 70 votes as of now.

BJP’s game plan: More to go from Congress

More than three MLAs from Congress are likely to resign from the party as they are in contact with the BJP. Sources in the party said, “There are 15 days left and who knows, we might win even without the support of independent MLAs,” a source said.
Narhari Amin also hinted at more resignations from Congress. “Why are you assuming that the Congress will have 66 MLAs?” “Our all three candidates will easily win the polls and now it is matter of victory margin, not victory or defeat.”
State BJP President Jitu Vaghani said, “The resignation of two Congress MLAs on Thursday is the outcome of infighting in the Congress. They should put their house in order instead of blaming the BJP.”


Cong holds meeting to keep flock together
After two Congress legislators resigned as MLA, Gujarat Congress on Thursday swung into action to keep its remaining flock together ahead of the crucial RS polls. Following a marathon meeting with 60 MLAs and senior party leaders, the party decided to form zone or district specific groups of MLAs so as to keep them connected.

Those who attended the meeting said these MLAs will be led by a senior Congress leader who will keep in touch with them or may live close to their respective assembly constituencies to be able to go and visit them when required.
“This is not the right time to keep all MLAs together. It is not safe to take them out of Gujarat keeping in mind Covid-19 scare. So it was decided that the MLAs will be divided as per zones, at least eight in Gujarat, and will be monitored by senior leaders so if there is an issue, it can be discussed. The idea is to keep the groups together,” said a MLA who attended the meeting.

The senior leaders who will monitor MLAs include GPCC chief Amit Chavda, former chief Bharatsinh Solanki, Arjun Modhvadia, Shaktisinh Gohil, Siddharth Patel, Jagdish Thakore, leader of opposition Paresh Dhanani and Gaurav Pandya to mention a few.
A total of 60 MLAs were physically present in the meeting while other six — Vikram Madam, Chirag Kaleria, Pravin Muchadia, Harshad Ribadiya, Bhaga Barad and Mahesh Patel — joined the meeting through an online platform. Senior Congress leader Ahmed Patel and Gujarat in-charge Rajeev Satav presided over the Meeting. Congress leader Arjun Modhwadia said, “Our calculation suggests that one candidate is winning for sure and the other candidate is on the borderline of victory. As Shaktisinh is the primary candidate, his win is definite.” Jayrajsinh Parmar, a Congressman, said that being a first candidate, Shaktisinh Gohil will have the votes required to win RS seat. “However, our calculations indicate that Bharatsinh Solanki also holds a chance to win,” he said.

Resignations not surprising?
Congress MLA Akshay Patel’s resignation from the party did not come as a bolt from the blue as it was suspected he was planning the move since March. He had gone to Delhi mid-March as he was reportedly unhappy with Congress candidates fielded for RS polls. Sources said he wanted Patidar candidates to be fielded. However, when media questioned him about his Delhi visit, he had said he was not upset with the party and had gone to Delhi for personal work. Congress shifted 67 MLAs to Jaipur to avoid cross voting in RS polls which was earlier scheduled for March 26. Kaprada MLA Jitu Chaudhary had reportedly missed his flight to Jaipur on March 16. Later, sources said, he went to Shiv Vilas hotel in Jaipur directly from Mumbai. Both Jitu Chaudhary and Akshay Patel remained unreachable for comments as their phones had been switched off. Meanwhile, sources said that government is making arrangements to ensure that all corona-infected MLAs including Naroda MLA Balram Thawani, Nikol MLA Jagdish Vishwakarma and Vejalpur MLA Kishorsinh Chouhan will be able to vote.