Motilal Oswal expects negative reported gross refining margins-GRMs (with core at $2 a barrel, benefitted by lower fuel and loss expense).
Oil marketing company Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is expected to report loss of around Rs 1,000 crore in quarter ended March 2020 due to inventory loss amid significant fall in crude oil prices.
The stock plunged 30.5 percent year-to-date (2020) and 18 percent in last one year period, while it was down 35 percent during March quarter itself.
International benchmark Brent crude futures lost 65 percent during March quarter to hit multi-year low of $22.74 a barrel due to fall in demand after globally countries announced lockdown to control the spread of novel coronavirus.
"We model loss at EBITDA level assuming (1) significant inventory loss of Rs 3,900 crore amid sharp fall in oil prices and (2) forex loss of Rs 1,000 crore, which will be partly offset by a jump in auto fuel marketing margins (up Rs 1.4 per litre)," said Kotak Institutional Equities which sees loss at Rs 1,113.4 crore and 41 percent decline in revenue.
The brokerage assumed 8 percent YoY decline in domestic sales volumes impacted by lockdown during end-March.
Motilal Oswal expects negative reported gross refining margins-GRMs (with core at $2 a barrel, benefitted by lower fuel and loss expense).
Find All Earnings Related News Here
"We model nil-subsidy sharing for oil marketing companies on lower crude prices; expect inventory loss (of $6.5 a barrel)," said the brokerage which sees loss at Rs 960 crore and 19 percent YoY decline in revenue for the quarter.
Facebook-BCG report suggests these measures for businesses to unlock the changing consumer behaviour in the current pandemic. Read More!
