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Weather: Monsoon arrives in Kerala on normal date of June 1

Vinson Kuria Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 01, 2020 Published on June 01, 2020

IMD expected onset on June 5 with model error of four days

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared that the year 2020 South-West monsoon has made its an onset over Kerala, entering mainland India today (June 1, Monday).

This is also the normal day of onset, and materialises slightly earlier than the date of June 5 given earlier, with a model error of four days. 

Private forecaster Skymet Weather had announced that the onset happened on Saturday itself, but the IMD was quick to deny it saying the required parameters had not been met.

A monsoon depression over Lakshadweep seems to have hastened the arrival of the monsoon over Kerala on Monday. 

Onset parameters 

The conventions followed are that, beginning from May 10, if at least five of the seven specified stations report 24- hourly rainfall of one mm or more for two consecutive days, the forecaster should go ahead and declare on the second day that the monsoon has advanced over Kerala. 

This (Monday) morning, a pre-existing low-pressure area had intensified into a depression over the East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea and was located 370 km South-West of Panjim (Goa); 690 km South-South-West of Mumbai; and 920 km South-South-West of Surat (Gujarat). 

Depression over Arabian Sea 

It would intensify into a deep depression by tonight and further into a cyclone over the East-Central Arabian Sea by tomorrow (Tuesday), the IMD said. A twin storm to the farther end of the Arabian Sea has weakened into a well-marked low over South Oman and Yemen. 

The overall IMD rainfall forecast is as follows: Monday: Light to moderate rainfall at most places, with isolated heavy falls forecast over the Lakshadweep area, North Kerala and coastal Karnataka today.

Light to moderate rainfall at most places, with isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely at isolated places, and very likely over South Konkan and Goa the same day. 

Rainfall outlook

Tuesday and Wednesday: Light to moderate rainfall at most places, with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan & Goa and over South Konkan & Goa on Wednesday. Light to moderate rainfall at most places, with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over North Konkan and North Madhya Maharashtra on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Light to moderate rainfall at most places, with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over South Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli on Wednesday; and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over South Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli on Thursday. 

Severe cyclone 

Meanwhile, the brewing cyclone may continue to move nearly North until tomorrow morning, intensify as a severe cyclone and re-curve towards the West Coast and cross the North Maharashtra and South Gujarat coasts between Harihareshwar (Raigad) and Daman during Wednesday evening/night.  

The IMD has issued warnings with respect to possibility of high winds, squally weather conditions, heavy rain, and rough seas in association with the genesis of the cyclone. Squally winds (40-50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/r) are prevailing over the East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea. 

Gale force winds 

These would escalate to 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr and gradually becoming gale force winds (cyclone strength, 60-70 km/hr gusting to 80 km/hr) over the East-Central Arabian Sea and along and off the South Maharashtra coast from tomorrow morning. 

 

The winds speeds would later pick up the strength of a severe cyclone (105-115 km/hr gusting to 125 km/hr) over the East-Central and the North-East Arabian Sea, along and off the Maharashtra coast, and 80-90 km/hr gusting to 100 km/hr along and off the South Gujarat coast from Wednesday evening. 

Towards the South, squally winds (50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr) may prevail along and off the Karnataka-Goa coasts today and tomorrow. They would reach 40-50 km/hr, gusting to 60 km/hr over the Lakshadweep area and along and off the Kerala coast during this period. 

Warning to fishermen

The sea condition would be rough to very rough (wave heights of 8-20 ft) around Lakshadweep during this period. It would become very rough to high (20-30 ft) along and off the Karnataka-Goa coasts; ad high to very high (30-46 ft) over along and off the Maharashtra coast tomorrow; and very rough to high along and off the Gujarat coast from Wednesday. 

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the South-East Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area and along and off the Kerala coast during the next two days; along and off the Karnataka-Goa coasts till Wednesday; and along and off the Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts on Wednesday and Thursday. 

 

Published on June 01, 2020

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