Weather: IMD upgrades alert to severe cyclone in Arabian Sea

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Weather: IMD upgrades alert to severe cyclone in Arabian Sea

Vinson Kuria Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 01, 2020 Published on June 01, 2020

May hit Raigad-Daman belt by Wednesday evening

The low-pressure area off the Kerala coast has intensified into a depression over the East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea and was located this (Monday) morning 370 km South-West of Panjim (Goa); 690km South-South-West of Mumbai and 920 km South-South-West of Surat (Gujarat).

It would intensify into a deep depression by tonight and further into a cyclone over the East-Central Arabian Sea by tomorrow (Tuesday), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. A twin storm to the farther end of the Arabian Sea has weakened into a well-marked low over South Oman and Yemen.

Harbinger of monsoon

The depression is expected to bring the monsoon into Kerala, the normal date of which falls today (June 1, Monday). The IMD had earlier said the seasonal rains would arrive around June 5 with a model error of +/- four days. Private forecaster Skymet Weather had declared the onset on Saturday itself.

The convention followed is that, beginning from May 10, if at least five of the seven specified stations report 24-hourly rainfall of one mm or more for two consecutive days, the forecaster should go ahead and declare on the second day that the monsoon has advanced over Kerala.

Rainfall outlook

The overall IMD rainfall forecast is as follows: Monday: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy falls forecast over Lakshadweep area, North Kerala and Coastal Karnataka today. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely at isolated places, very likely over South Konkan and Goa the same day.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan & Goa and over South Konkan & Goa on Wednesday. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over North Konkan and North Madhya Maharashtra on Wednesday and Thursday.

Severe cyclone day after

Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over South Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli on Wednesday; and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over South Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the brewing cyclone may continue to move nearly North until tomorrow morning, intensify as a severe cyclone and re-curve towards the West Coast and cross the North Maharashtra and South Gujarat coasts between Harihareshwar (Raigad) and Daman during Wednesday evening/night.

High winds, squally conditions

The IMD has issued warnings with respect to possibility of high winds, squally weather conditions, heavy rain, and rough seas in association with the genesis of the cyclone. Squally winds (40-50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/r) are prevailing over the East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea.

These would escalate to 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr and gradually becoming gale force winds (cyclone strength, 60-70 km/hr gusting to 80 km/hr) over the East-Central Arabian Sea and along and off the South Maharashtra coast from tomorrow morning.

Wind-swept in South

The wind speeds would later pick up the strength of a severe cyclone (105-115 km/hr gusting to 125 km/hr) over the East-Central and the North-East Arabian Sea, along and off the Maharashtra coast and 80-90 km/hr gusting to 100 km/hr along and off the South Gujarat coast from Wednesday evening.

Towards the South, squally winds (50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr) may prevail along and off the Karnataka-Goa coasts today and tomorrow. They would reach 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr over the Lakshadweep area and along and off the Kerala coast during this period.

Warning to fishermen

The sea condition would be rough to very rough (wave heights of 8-20 ft) around Lakshadweep during this period. It would become very rough to high (20-30 ft) along and off the Karnataka-Goa coasts; and high to very high (30-46 ft) over along and off the Maharashtra coast tomorrow; and very rough to high along and off the Gujarat coast from Wednesday.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the South-East Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area and along and off the Kerala coast during the next two days; along and off the Karnataka-Goa coasts till Wednesday; and along and off the Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts on Wednesday and Thursday.

Published on June 01, 2020

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