IMD Predicts Normal Monsoon, Issues Cyclone Warning For Western India
The southwest monsoon has hit Kerala, marking the commencement of the four-month long rainfall season, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday. The IMD has retained its forecast for normal monsoon in India this year at 102% of long-period average.
The Met Department has also issued a warning for a cyclonic storm brewing in the Arabian Sea. "The low pressure area over Southeast and adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area concentrated into a Depression over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea. It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression during next 12 hours and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm over Eastcentral Arabian Sea during the subsequent 24 hours," IMD said in a statement.
The cyclonic storm could make landfall near the border of Gujarat and Maharashtra around Vapi on Wednesday.
Once the storm intensifies into a cyclone, it will be named Nisarga, as per the new list of cyclone names approved by the World Meteorological Organisation. It will be the second cyclone over North Indian Ocean this season after Amphan.
Cyclone Nisarga To Bring Heavy Rains To Coastal Maharashtra
Expect heavy to very heavy rainfall in coastal areas of Maharashtra on June 3 as cyclone Nisarga advances over the Arabian Sea, IMD said at a media briefing on Monday.
IMD predicts heavy to very rainfall in districts including Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Thane, Raigad, Mumbai and Palghar. Isolated regions may receive extremely heavy rainfall of more than 20 cm on June 3, it said.
IMD Retains Forecast For Normal Monsoon
India Meteorological Department has retained the forecast for normal monsoon in India this year. IMD expects monsoon rains to be 102% of long-period average as the conditions become more favourable for good rains.
Region-wise monsoon distribution:
- North west: 107% of LPA
- Central India: 103% of LPA
- South peninsula: 102% of LPA
- North east: 96% of LPA
Monthly distribution of rains:
- July: 103% of LPA
- August: 97% of LPA
There is a higher probability of normal or above normal rainfall this monsoon season, according to the Met Department’s second forecast. The probability forecasts suggest a very low probability of deficient rains.
Probability Forecasts:
- Deficient rains (Below 90% of LPA): 5%
- Below normal (90%-96% of LPA): 15%
- Normal rainfall (96%-104% of LPA): 41%
- Above normal (104%-110% of LPA): 25%
- Excess (Above 110% of LPA): 14%
Watch IMD Briefing
Maharashtra District-Wise Forecast
Rainfall Warning For India's West Coast
The Met department has forecasted light to moderate rainfall over Lakshadweep, north Kerala and coastal Karnataka on Monday with isolated instances of heavy rain.
South Konkan and Goa will also receive light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rain at isolated regions between June 1 and June 3.
North Konkan region and the rest of the Maharashtra coast will witness rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday. IMD warns it could get heavy in some regions and extremely heavy in isolated instances.
Rains will hit Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli on June 3, which could gain strength on June 4 with extremely heavy rainfall in isolated regions.