A cyclone brewing over the Arabian Sea has the city of Mumbai in its sights. The storm -- likely to be named Cyclone Nisarga -- is expected to take shape early tomorrow morning and intensify further later in the day. The predicted cyclone, the second to form near India in a fortnight, will bring heavy rainfall along India's west coast, including over north Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa, coastal and western Maharashtra and south Gujarat.
According to the India Meteorological Department, the predicted cyclone is expected to cross land between Harihareshwar in Maharashtra's Raigad district and the city of Daman, located on the southern edge of Gujarat, by the afternoon of Wednesday, June 3. The IMD's path forecast for Cyclone Nisarga shows the storm headed directly for Mumbai.
(Note: Cyclone Nisarga has not yet formed; this story will be updated with the latest status of the cyclone and its location and path as and when the IMD makes fresh predictions)
However, by the time the cyclone nears land it could move southward or northward, meaning that landfall could take place near Mumbai or at another point along the coast of northern Maharashtra or southern Gujarat. After crossing over, the cyclone is expected to steadily lose intensity, dissipating somewhere over Madhya Pradesh on June 4 morning.
Currently, the storm is a depression, which is the second category on the India Meteorological Department's eight-level cyclone classification system. The storm is expected to become a deep depression tonight before intensifying into a cyclonic storm early tomorrow morning and then into a severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday night.
Here's a how the IMD is predicting Cyclone Nisarga's movement in the upcoming days. Tap on the pins in the map below to know the storm's intensity at that point and the approximate time it will be there.
(Cyclone Nisarga's predicted path in the map above is based on IMD estimates released on Monday afternoon. This map will be updated with fresh estimates as and when released by the weather department.)
Here is an image of the cyclone's predicted path along with the 'cone of uncertainty', which essentially is a margin of error in weather predictions. So, while the red line in the image below shows the cyclone's predicted path, the green zone surrounding it is the area the storm might end up in.
WHAT IS CYCLONE NISARGA?
- The upcoming storm has not yet been christened as part of the convention that cyclones are named only once they actually form. Once the cyclone takes shape tomorrow, it will officially be named Nisarga.
- Nisarga is a name given by Bangladesh, one of the 13 countries that will take turns in naming future cyclones that form over the North Indian Ocean. Nisarga means 'nature' in Bengali.
- Nisarga is the first moniker on a list of new cyclone names that take effect this year. The old list of 64 names was exhausted two weeks ago when Cyclone Amphan formed over the Bay of Bengal.
- Nisarga will be the second cyclonic storm of the 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. The first was Cyclone Amphan, which hit West Bengal on May 20. Amphan was categorised as a 'super cyclonic storm', which is the highest level of classification on the IMD's cyclone scale.
WHAT IMPACT WILL CYCLONE NISARGA HAVE?
It's too early to judge Cyclone Nisarga's post-landfall impact; we will know more on Tuesday once the IMD releases fresh alerts as the storm turns into a cyclone. For now, the weather department has predicted rainfall in the following regions on the following days:
Monday, June 1: Moderate to heavy rain over Lakshadweep, north Kerala, coastal Karnataka, south Konkan and Goa.
Tuesday, June 2: Moderate to heavy rain over Konkan (including Mumbai) and Goa.
Wednesday, June 3: Moderate to heavy rain over Konkan (including Mumbai), western Maharashtra, southern Gujarat, Daman, and Dadra and Nagar Haveli.
Thursday June 4: Moderate to heavy rain over north Konkan (including Mumbai), parts of western Maharashtra, southern Gujarat, Daman, and Dadra and Nagar Haveli.
WIND & SEA: The cyclonic storm is going to result in strong winds across the Indian west coast over the next few days. The sea condition is also expected to be rough and fishermen have been advised not to venture out to sea.
CYCLONE NISARGA: EXPECTED LANDFALL
According to the IMD's current estimates, Cyclone Nisarga could make landfall on the northern Maharashtra or southern Gujarat coast. Currently, it looks like Mumbai is very well in Cyclone Nisarga's path.
Whether or not Cyclone Nisarga makes landfall near Mumbai will be clearer by Tuesday evening; however, the city is likely to be impacted in some way or the other due to the storm.
The current predicted landfall for Cyclone Nisarga is Wednesday (June 3) afternoon between Harihareshwar, located south of Mumbai in Maharashtra, and Daman, located along the southern Gujarat coast.
CYCLONE NISARGA: PREPARATIONS
The governments of Maharashtra and Gujarat have sounded alerts in their respective states. The predicted cyclone will be an added cause of worry for the two states, which are among the worst affected in the still-raging novel coronavirus pandemic (Maharashtra leads the national tally in both patients and deaths).
A high-level meeting was held in Delhi on Monday to review preparedness for Cyclone Nisarga. The National Disaster Response Force is deploying over 20 teams for Cyclone Nisarga. These including 11 in Gujarat, 10 in Maharashtra and two in the union territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu.
The NDRF has just had a first-hand experience of carrying out relief and rescue work during a cyclone while also dealing with the threat of the novel coronavirus -- Amphan in West Bengal and Odisha.
(With inputs from Saurabh Vakhtania in Mumbai, Gopi Maniar in Gandhinagar and Jitendra Bahudur Singh in New Delhi)