The LPA for the country from 1961-2020 is 88 cm and anything between 96 per cent to 104 per cent LPA is considered a good monsoon.

Releasing the second long-range forecast for monsoon 2020, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) Secretary Dr Madhavan Nair Rajeevan announced that the monsoons arrived in Kerala on Monday. He also said the country will have a “good and normal” monsoon this year.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its first long-range forecast in April, had earlier predicted a June 1 arrival of the monsoons. However, officials had indicated that there could be a four-day delay of the season due to cyclone Amphan in Eastern India.

In his announcements Monday, Rajeevan said, “There is good news, and that is that we will have a good monsoon. The Long Period Average (LPA) this year is 102 per cent across the entire country, for the period of June to September.”

“This is two per cent more than what we expected,” he said, referring to the average of the total rainfall across the country during the southwest monsoons over a 50-year period.

The LPA for the country from 1961-2020 is 88 cm and anything between 96 per cent to 104 per cent LPA is considered a good monsoon.

“In July, which is a crucial month for farmers, we expect an LPA of 103 per cent across the country, which dips slightly to 97 per cent in August, which is a little less than normal. According to our data we have a high probability of a normal monsoon at 41 per cent, while the chances of a deficient monsoon are low at 5 per cent. Our data shows that this will be a good monsoon year for us,” Rajeevan said. He further stated that IMD expects a “good spatial distribution” of the rainfall across the country.

Meanwhile, IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, “Many atmospheric variables over the region indicate ENSO Neutral to cool ENSO neutral conditions over the region. The latest forecasts from MMCFS and other global models, as well as our own, together indicate cool ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail… However, a few other climate models indicate possibility of development of weak La Niña conditions in the later part of the season or thereafter. These also create favourable conditions for a good monsoon.”