Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan categorically said here on Monday that even though 30-odd COVID-19 cases with no epidemiological link had been reported in Kerala, this did not indicate community transmission.

It was only natural to miss a few contacts, when a new patient’s contact tracing over 14 days was done. So if one of these “missing contacts” developed the disease and no epidemiological link could be established, these cases did not constitute community transmission, he pointed out.

Epidemiological link

When such a case was reported, further epidemiological investigation was conducted around the case to detect if there were any more cases in the locality. But till date, no such cluster of cases without epidemiological link had been reported in the State, indicating that there was no community spread, Mr. Vijayan claimed.

Since no one had any idea if these 30 cases had had a contact with a patient or his primary contacts, these cases should be considered as secondary contacts. This was true only in the case of COVID-19. In the case of any other disease, even if one case without epidemiological linkage was reported, it was considered as community transmission, he said.

The huge success achieved by Kerala in limiting COVID-19 disease transmission in the State was largely based on the strengths of the de-centralised public health system and the State’s efficient planning ahead, he said.

Kerala’s success was in the strict implementation of a five-pronged containment strategy which focussed on trace, quarantine, test, isolate and treat. Many nations where disease transmission was intense, focussed only on test and treat, he said.

Effective methods

Mr. Vijayan said that Kerala could stop the disease in its tracks through its effective home quarantining and contact tracing. This also ensured that COVID-19 basic reproduction number or R nought (R0) in Kerala remained at 0.45 instead of the global average of 3, even in the second stage of disease containment.

(The basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the number of cases that are expected to occur on average in a homogeneous population as a result of infection by a single individual, when the population is susceptible at the start of an epidemic).

The Chief Minister argued that if R0 had been 3, the current number of active cases in Kerala would have been 25,000.

He said that the State would continue to strengthen reverse quarantining and contact tracing in the days to come to limit disease transmission, as lockdown norms were further eased.