India as a whole would receive 102 per cent rainfall of its Long Period Average(LPA) of 88 centimetres during the current monsoon season , which commenced with many parts of Kerala receiving rains on Monday.
India Meteorological Department (IMD), which announced the second stage monsoon forecast here, said it was upwardly revising the quantum of rainfall expected during the four-month monsoon season to 102 per cent of the LPA from 100 per cent forecast in mid-April. There could be a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent.
Similarly, IMD also announced rainfall forecasts for four homogeneous regions -- Northwest India, Central India, Southern Peninsula and Northeast India. While agriculturally-important Northwest India and Central India would receive 107 and 103 per cent of average rainfalls they have receiving over the year, Southern Peninsula would get 102 per cent. However, the rainfall that Northeastern region would be receiving during the monsoon period would be around 96 per cent, said M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences. The homogeneous region monsoon forecasts have a model error of 8 per cent, he said.
The spread of the monsoon over the four-month-period is also expected to be good, particularly during the months of July and August, when farmers normally undertake kharif sowing. IMD expects rainfall during July to be 103 per cent of the normal quantum during the month, while that in August would be 97 per cent.
Rajeevan, who along with IMD Director General M Mohapatra, briefed the media, said El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions this year is expected to be favourable for a good monsoon. While El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean,, which are associated with a poor Indian monsoon, are absent, some models forecast a weak La Nina, which is normally linked to plentiful monsoon rains in the country, he said.
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