MoES Secretary said that the probability of having a normal monsoon season is 41 per cent.

IMD monsoon forecast: With the onset of Southwest monsoon right on time in Kerala, a normal monsoon is expected this year in India. In a press conference, Dr M Rajeevan, Secretary at Ministry of Earth Sciences addressing the second stage of monsoon forecast said that long period average rainfall has exceeded by 2 per cent in this forecast, which brings the expected long period average to 102 per cent. Earlier in April, it was forecasted at 100 per cent. It is to note that the long period average is calculated for the average rainfall received by India as a whole for the period June-September or the south-west monsoon, for a 50-year period. Current long term average for the country is 88cm.

“The conditions have become more favourable for a good monsoon than what was expected in April and there will be a spatial distribution of rainfall over the country,” said Dr M Rajeevan. The rainfall during the month of July, which is crucial for farmers, is also expected to be good, he added. In the month of August, the rainfall is likely to be a little less than the normal rainfall at 97 per cent. He indicated that some weather models are suggesting a marginal dip in temperature over the second half of the monsoon season.

Discussing the probabilities of the rainfall, MoES Secretary said that the probability of having a normal monsoon season is 41 per cent. “There are not any likely chances that can push the monsoon rains to the deficient side which is good news,” he asserted.

According to the announcement, while a good average rainfall is expected in Northwest, Central and Southern Peninsula, Northeast India is likely to witness rainfall slightly below average at 97 per cent.

Meanwhile, Dr M Rajeevan explained about the depression in Arabian Sea which will form a cyclonic storm in the next hours. “This will bring heavy rains alongside the western coast but they are not monsoon rains,” he said. It is to note that the monsoon season has many many conditions other than the rainfall. As far as the cyclonic disruptions are concerned, the ministry said that more clarity on the distance for the landfall of the cyclone will come tomorrow morning.