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29 May, 2020, 05:39 PM IST

India GDP Q4 live updates: Stalled economy drags core sector output to record low of -38% in April

Today will give a glimpse into what's to come in Q1FY21 when the economy faces full impact of the lockdown.

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05:31 PM

April IIP set to nosedive?

Core sector data shows that the index of industrial production could slip further from its 16 per cent contraction seen in March. Core sector output forms 40 per cent of the IIP.

05:29 PM

Core sector in a glance

05:23 PM

Is 0% the best growth rate India can hope for?

05:19 PM

Govt had revised fiscal deficit target for FY20 to 3.8%

Given the unprecedented conditions arising from the pandemic and a prolonged slowdown, the government revised its budget deficit for the last fiscal year to 3.8 percent from an earlier 3.3 percent.

05:13 PM

Once the lockdown is lifted and the economy is given a green signal to restart, I am sure that we can ramp up pretty soon and reach at least 5 per cent (growth rate)

- Duvvuri Subbarao, former RBI governor

05:04 PM

Core sector output crashes in April

India’s core sector output contracted 38.1% in April
This marks the worst performance by the key infrastructure areas going back to 2005
This is the second consecutive contraction in the key economic indicator

05:01 PM

S&P projections

Forecasting a 5 per cent contraction in 2020-21 (versus 1.8 per cent growth forecast it made in April), S&P said growth is expected to pick up to 8.5 per cent in the following fiscal (up from the previous forecast of 7.5 per cent). The GDP is projected to expand by 6.5 per cent in FY23 and 6.6 per cent FY24.

04:56 PM

The global economy is inexorably headed into recession… Given all these uncertainties, GDP growth in 2020-21 is estimated to remain in the negative territory.

- Shaktikanta Das, RBI governor

04:52 PM

First time in its history

The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index plunged to 5.4 in April from 49.3 in March, an unprecedented contraction since the survey started over 14 years ago.

04:51 PM

India is going to face a massive demand shock so pumping money in the hands of people might actually be the way to save the economy.

- Abhijit Banerjee, Economist

04:50 PM

The silver lining

There could be agricultural growth that's expected to remain stable on the back of expectations of a good monsoon.

04:48 PM

Care Ratings

GDP growth in Q4 is expected to be 3.6 per cent with the headline number coming down to 4.7 per cent for the entire year.

04:45 PM

RBI hits and misses

The Reserve Bank of India has cut policy rates by 115 basis points but banks have been unwilling to extend credit. Small and mid-size enterprises continue to face restricted access to credit markets despite some policy measures aimed at easing financing for the sector.

04:44 PM

Why you should worry about the economy

04:43 PM

Closing Bell: Sensex takes winning run to 3rd day, rises 224 points; Nifty tops 9,550

04:41 PM

The economy is close to collapse and is being attended by very incompetent doctors.

- P Chidambaram

04:39 PM

Where is the economy headed?

Manufacturing: Manufacturing growth contracted by 0.2 per cent in the October-December period pulling down the GDP to 4.7 per cent, the lowest in 27 quarters. Manufacturing was already struggling but the Covid-19 pandemic brought it to a standstill.
Jobs: Data from private forecaster CMIE showed that unemployment rate fell from 8.75 per cent in March to a staggering 23.5 per cent in April. In the month of April alone, 122 million Indians lost their jobs.
Industrial activity: IIP contracted by a record 16.7 per cent in March just when the country had entered a strict lockdown.
Core sector: Key infrastructure industries showed a decline of 6.7 per cent in March, lowest in at least 15 years going back to the previous series with base year of FY05.
Exports: Indian merchandise exports slumped by 60 per cent in April, lowest in 25 years reflecting the sombre sentiment globally amid widespread lockdowns and cancellation of orders. In March, the exports had fallen by 34.5 per cent. The WTO has projected that world trade could fall between 13 per cent and 32 per cent in 2020.

04:38 PM

Goldman projections

Goldman Sachs has said that the economy will contract by a staggering 45 per cent in the April-June period.

04:32 PM

Both Fitch and CRISIL have projected the economy to contract by 5 per cent in FY21 while SBI sees a de-growth of 6.8 per cent in the same fiscal.

04:32 PM

Reuters poll

Poll of 52 economists indicated that the economy expanded by a mere 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY20, weakest in at least eight years.
Around six economists in that poll predicted the economy to shrink in the January-March quarter.

04:31 PM

SBI research report

Economy will clock 1.2 per cent growth in the January-March period owing to stalling of economic activity in the last week of March after a nationwide lockdown was imposed on March 25. For the entire fiscal year FY20, SBI predicts a growth rate of 4.2 per cent.

04:30 PM

May turns out a shade better as factories restart

04:29 PM

ICRA's projections

Indian economy will grow by 1.9 per cent in the January-March period.
For the entire fiscal (FY2019-20) ICRA has projected a growth rate of 4.3 per cent.
This is in stark contrast to a growth of 6.1 per cent registered in FY19.

04:28 PM

Bringing the economy back to life will cost India Rs 65,000 crore. Out of India's Rs 200 lakh crore GDP, this amount is minuscule.

- Raghuram Rajan, former RBI governor

04:26 PM

Fast Facts

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice – as per available data – in fiscal year 1958, 1966 and 1980. A monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy, was the reason on all three occasions.

04:23 PM

One single week of lost production pulled March IIP down by a massive 16.7%.

A clear sign that we are probably headed for what will only be the fourth recession in post-Independence India's economic history.

04:22 PM

The crucial numbers

The GDP numbers for Q4 of FY20 will show us where the Indian economy stood during the three months through March — the last seven days of which overlapped with the first seven of this unprecedented nationwide curb.

04:22 PM

Falling streak

India’s growth was already at a six-year-low during the pre-lockdown period.
Growth rate in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of the last fiscal stood at 5.6 per cent, 5.1 per cent, and 4.7 per cent respectively.

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