Ritesh Jain, a Dalal Street veteran, trend watcher and Global Macro Investor, captures global macro investment opportunities and economic, business and financial trends with charts and commentaries in this space.

Fed has put yield curve control?
Market action seems to hint at the possibility along with references about yield control in recent FOMC minutes

Why US dollar could fall hard from here
The Fed’s balance sheet expanded by USD184.5 bn to USD7.0 trn in the week to the 20th May. M2 money supply grew by USD225.4 bn to USD17.99 trn. Over the last 5 and 10 weeks it was up an annualised 110% and was up 23.3% y/y. The Fed’s balance sheet is now 38.9% of M2 money supply with its share of the growth just over 81% over the last week. The Treasury General Account, the inert account at the Fed, is USD1.193 trn which is supposed to be reduced to USD800 bn by the end of June, injecting just under USD400bn into the economy.

The rise and rise of US tech giants
Market cap of Amazon is now higher than the market cap of DAX

The difference between strong and weak balance sheet has never been stark

Those housing market crash warnings are starting to look silly
Handsome recovery in US housing demand

Bonds and Gold continue to outperform US equities since Covid

Will bearish sentiment ever "ease"?
BofA bull and bear historic chart.