How will COVID-19 change the music industry?

The music industry has faced many tough moments, not least the invention of the internet, which threatened to bring the business to its knees. As the way we consume music evolved through vinyl and CD to MP3 and streaming, artists, labels and more latterly streaming platforms have learned to adapt—or risk extinction.

COVID-19 has brought with it its own set of challenges, not least to the live sector. However, a quick glance past the predicted doom and gloom suggests there might be hope in sight. Along with industry executives and artists such as rapper French Montana, singer Koffee, singer-songwriter Davido and award-winning producer Fraser T Smith, we take a look at a creative business in flux—and see where the future may lie for music post-pandemic.

The live sector

For those who make a living from live music—artists, technicians, roadies, agents, bartenders and so on—times are incredibly hard right now. It’s possible we may not attend a festival or gig until at least Autumn 2021, according to oncologist and bioethicist Dr Ezekiel ‘Zeke’ Emanuel. How this will impact the sector economically over the next few months is yet to be determined, but it will be felt. “We’re all affected. People behind the scenes mostly of course, because they work for that day-to-day grind, but it affects all of us,” Moroccan-American rapper French Montana tells Vogue. “We’re fuelled by this passion for music. Honestly, the money comes and goes, but when you can’t exercise your passion out there, it breaks your heart. I miss performing for my fans.”

What we are seeing, however, is artists discovering new ways of connecting with their audience, as Afrobeats superstar Davido points out. “One of the positives is the shift in mindset,” he says from Lagos. “We still have the desire to create and reach fans, but this [the pandemic] has forced us to be more inventive, but also mindful, in the process.” Indeed, we’ve seen a rise in inventive programming from many musicians. From Miley Cyrus’s #BrightMinded series to Lady Gaga’s ‘One World: Together At Home’ (which has raised more than $127m for the World Health Organisation and associated charities) to a memorable IG Live battle between hip-hop legends DJ Premier and RZA, which racked up a whopping 850,000 views. Meanwhile, 275,000 people tuned in to see Billie Eilish chat to fans on her IG Live—the appetite for interaction is evident.

Platforms such as Twitch, which live-stream gameplay, have been working closely with musicians for a while. Fortnite fans were recently treated to ‘Astronomical’, a pre-recorded performance from Travis Scott, where he premiered new song The Scotts—amassing 7.54m plays on Spotify within 24 hours—and the ability to unlock ‘virtual merch’. A staggering 12.3m concurrent players watched the show and so far more than 28m Fortnite players have experienced Astronomical via five showings. Many more viewers than if he had played at this year’s Coachella, as planned.

But are these screen-based experiences the same as putting on our wellies and gathering in a field? “I’m not sure that any platform is a replacement for a live experience with tens, hundreds or even thousands of others. [You miss the] energy and movement and the dancing, but as a means of connecting people to one another via music and shared experience, it’s certainly working,” notes Stacey Tang, managing director of RCA Records UK, whose roster includes Travis Scott, Lil Nas X and Alicia Keys. “It’s not the solution for all acts and I am not sure it’s a substitute for live, even if solely focusing on income. [But] there’s a lot of new opportunity presenting itself and that experimentation to make up revenue is driving really creative conversations.”

Brand support

For those fortunate to still be making money in both the virtual world and IRL, let’s hope there’s more generous mobilisation, like that we’ve already seen from Beyoncé and Rihanna. Thankfully, labels and brands are doing their bit, too. There’s the $100m Sony Music Global Relief Fund, while British music licensing company PPL just released an advance payment of £23.9m to help its members during the crisis. Apple Music recently announced a $50m relief fund for indie labels and distributors, and is also giving budding music creators 90 days free access to audio apps Final Cut and Logic Pro. Bandcamp has temporarily waived its fee, with revenue now going directly to artists. Spotify has launched COVID-19 Music Relief to provide information and support to artists experiencing income loss due to the virus.

“As so many artists have been impacted during this unprecedented time, we wanted to try to help those in the music community most in need,” says Jeremy Erlich, co-head of music at Spotify. “In support of the artist community, we have made contributions to MusiCares, as well as other global organisations that offer financial relief for the music community, the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and WHO, and established a $10m matching fund through the Spotify COVID-19 Music Relief project.”

The streaming platform has also launched the Artist Fundraising Pick, which enables artists who are interested in raising money to support themselves, their bands, or their crews. “We’re trying to get the message out that it’s still a great time to release music,” Erlich continues. “Uncertainty and fear are natural in these times, but to the extent we can be a source of stability and hope, we’ll happily step into that role.”

Let the music play

While data early on in the lockdown suggested music streaming numbers had dipped—most noticeably when bars and pubs shut their doors—newer figures suggest streaming platforms are in fact growing subscribers, while others insist streaming may just save the industry. Other positive signs include Apple Music announcing expansion into 52 more countries across Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America.

While some artists—including Lady Gaga and Sam Smith—chose to pause releases, those who proceeded are now reaping the benefits. The Weeknd not only had the most pre-saves (975,000 times) on Apple Music history with his latest album After Hours, but scored the biggest first-week sales of 2020 and went to number one in 17 countries.

Despite leaking early, Dua Lipa’s second studio album Future Nostalgia, released a week after After Hours on March 27, scored Lipa her first number one album in the UK. It also broke three streaming records, points out Spotify’s Erlich. “Each artist, manager and label have to decide for themselves what is the best approach during this time, and we have continued to be there as a valued partner,” he says. “It’s hard, but the solidarity we are witnessing is truly inspiring. And from a fan’s perspective, they still want and need music, perhaps now more than ever. What we have seen is that our listeners still consume newly released music as much as they usually would. We've also seen very little change in how users are engaging on [the] platform.”

Award-winning producer and songwriter Fraser T Smith, who’s created hits for Adele, Stormzy and Sam Smith, is going ahead with his debut album release this year. “I haven’t really thought about the strategic ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ time to release in terms of sales,” he says. “I’ve been working on this album for a while, and it’s very personal to me. It was borne [by] feeling anxious about the environment, politics, AI, the list goes on. I’ve worked with some of the greatest minds in culture on the record and I’m excited to share their answers and viewpoints. It’s certainly helped me gain perspective and I’m sure it’ll connect with others, too.”

From the view point of RCA Records, it’s mostly business as usual. “Situations are artist dependent,” says Tang. “We have moved records up in instances where acts are prolific or the audience is hungry for rapid releases. Where there are other plans anchored by huge promotions, we absolutely stick to the timeline. Little Mix are doing well as people want to hear feel-good pop songs. TikTok is an even bigger promotional platform than it was pre-pandemic.”

The rise of radio

As streaming figures grow, we’re also turning increasingly to interaction with our music. In the UK, the BBC has reported an 18 per cent increase in listenership across its radio stations, while over in the US, Los Angeles’ KNX has seen a whopping 44 per cent increase in listenership. Sonos has also just launched its own ‘radio’, available online, while Apple Music’s Beats 1 is now available in seven Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The positive impact on creativity and mental wellness

While live shows have of course ‘slowed down’, for Jamaican singer Koffee the creative process is accelerating. “I’ve been able to reflect a lot more on myself and my music, and to create more now than I did while being on the road, and I’m grateful for that. One of the positives for me is the opportunity during quarantining to refocus and the time to self search.”

Davido agrees: “I’m embracing doing things on a more simplistic level. That’s what COVID-19 is forcing the world to do. […] I have learned that it’s OK to stop, rest and reset. It’s more than OK, it’s actually important.”

Record labels are feeling the positive changes, too. “One of my favourite upsides is the community spirit and can-do attitude of artists who are reaching fans via live streams, language lessons, DJ sets, challenges across social platforms and ‘agony aunt’ or other Q&As,” says Tang. “It feels to me like there is a real sense of playfulness and personality coming from artists, which is great for fans to experience and engage with. If we can retain these elements of collaboration and cooperation that have sprung up it’s going to be a happier, more productive place for everyone.”

Reason for hope

As French Montana points out, COVID-19 has taken all of us, regardless of our job or financial status, by surprise. It’s about what we do next. “I hope everyone, especially the people behind the scenes, will be able to make up for this lost time quickly. I want everyone to learn to save money for emergencies like this in the future. Be wise.”

Fraser T Smith is also optimistic. “Through being isolated, people are strangely connecting more on a deeper level, and humanity is coming together and appreciating each other. This can only be a positive because at the core, it’s about artists having time to truly connect with their feelings which brings about great art. […] If we can all ride out this time in isolation, the business will bounce back to a higher point than where it was before.”

Also read:

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