The UK is expected to scrap the
#StayAtHome policy, marking a watershed moment in easing the
lockdown. The press is welcoming it as ‘Magic Monday’! Prime Minister
Boris Johnson - who expressed, rather emotionally, the horrors of his own Covid-combatting ordeal when confined to the ICU, even as his staff were preparing for “The Death of Stalin” scenario – has conceded that the economy is comatose with a looming recession (the worst in three centuries!) and that bold and balancing steps are needed on easing.
The world is grappling for an answer to the major question right now: Will the recovery be V- or U-shaped? While there are many contours to the equation, one such is human behaviour: to what extent have habits changed, and how much will fear prolong the self-imposed social distancing and social detachment. Essentially, has the human nature undergone a permanent change or is it just a matter of time before we see a habitual mean reversion to the status quo?
Earlier this week, India allowed liquor shops to reopen. Parched citizens queued up for hours in merry spirits and record sales ensued. For once, the fears of the virus, social distancing norms and strict lockdown pedagogy on personal hygiene were thrown to the wind along with the caution, as serpentine lines extended for miles in some cities. The spectacle, which is constant across small towns and through days, is not unique to India.
In Guangzhou, China, a Hermès luxury goods store clocked the highest-ever, single-day sales on reopening. In northern France, a reopened
McDonald’s drive-through triggered a three-hour traffic jam, much to the dismay of haute-cuisine puritans. In Italy, coffee bars have seen regulars return and queue up patiently for hours for their pet Espresso shot. In England, we are waiting for the EPL to restart (albeit behind closed doors) and cheer the teams from the local pub. Is this just pent-up demand or a rush of addiction, or really an expression of liberation for the masses?
There will be severe economic restrictions, which will affect our behaviour and spending pattern in the short-to-medium term. But the reflections in this essay are not on that, but to comprehend if there will be major long-term
lifestyle changes driven by fear. Would we as a race become reclusive, and abandon group activities for a long time? Will ‘Work From Home’ become a permanent theme? Will long-distance travel or use of public
transport be severely limited? Will we restrict holidays and tourism?
Apocalyptic prophecies have been made for industries in the hospitality, tourism, transport, leisure, malls, theatre segments. Such predictions are easier when we are gripped by distress, and mass hysteria reigns.
However, learning from history, individuals are slaves to habit and, once things stabilise, they get back to their comfort zones. A new normal is never developed due to fear, but mostly driven out of necessity or rapid technological advancements. I am not losing sight of the dangers we still face from the ongoing Covid-19 endemic, but writing obituaries for the pre-Corona world seems very impulsive. The new generation, brought up on Instagram and Facebook diet, is fuelled by ambition as well as liberation, albeit with a touch of arrogant ignorance. For this generation, which has defined the social network, being unsocial is a retrograde step and quite improbable.
It’s uniquely uplifting to see the Himalayas from a town 300 km away, or spotting a mob of sheep pattering through the streets of Wales, or swans replacing gondolas in Venice – events that had become history pre-Covid. But the real healing of ‘our’ world would happen when local trains in Mumbai would help
dabbawallas perfect the Six Sigma once again or when thousands queue up in November rain around Leicester Square to cheer Daniel Craig and literally scream
No Time To Die!