Coronavirus crisis | Kerala estimates Rs 80,000 crore loss in gross value added in Q1FY20

The Kerala State Planning Board has put out a report assessing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the state economy.

The report estimates Rs 80,000 crore loss in gross value added for Q1FY20 (April-June FY20), with March alone causing nearly Rs 29,000 crore of the shortfall, The Economic Times reported.

The total losses in agriculture for March and April are estimated at Rs 1,570.75 crore, while the loss for agricultural labourers is estimated at Rs 200.30 crore. Tourism – the worst-hit sector – is expected to lose Rs 20,000 crore from March to September.

The manufacturing sector is expected to take a total dip of Rs 8,000 crore split as Rs 1,500 crore in March, Rs 4,500 crore in April and Rs 2,000 crore in May.

A slump in trade, hotel and restaurant sectors means a combined hit of Rs 17,000 crore – with April seeing Rs 10,000 crore downfall. Net income loss from road transport is Rs 240 crore per day – estimated to come to a total of Rs 9,600 crore.

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The direct and indirect gross state value addition (GSVA) based on the input-output model is estimated at 10 percent in FY20 and 20 percent in FY21, it added.

For the period of lockdown, in terms of wages, losses of self-employed and casual workers come close to Rs 350 crore – a cumulative Rs 14,000-15,000 crore over March to June, with April alone recording an estimated Rs 8,500 crore. Sector-wise, hotels, trade, restaurants, construction, manufacturing and transport are the worst affected, thus affecting 57.7 percent or 73.3 lakh of the states’ 127 lakh strong workforce, it said.

Notably, Kerala is the first state to work on such an assessment. It is an effort to provide a view of the magnitude rather than precise figures as estimates are based on available information, the report noted.